[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Mark Alford

Republican · Representative, MO ·4

Score Components

26 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

64 → 16

Intelligence Volume 10%

52 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Uninsured rate: Approximately 11% (above national average of 8.6%; Missouri has not fully expanded Medicaid)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 40.2

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: Approximately 71% (above national average of 65.5%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+28

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: Approximately 22% (well below Missouri average of 31% and national average of 33.7%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: Approximately 14% (above Missouri average of 12.5% and national average of 12.4%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Veterans as share of civilian adult population: Approximately 13% (substantially above national average of 7%, reflecting Fort Leonard Wood's regional influence)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Black population share: Approximately 6% (concentrated in Fort Leonard Wood military community)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White non-Hispanic population share: Approximately 88%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: Approximately $53,200 (below Missouri median of $61,134 and well below national median of $74,580)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Missouri Proposition A — Minimum Wage Increase and Paid Sick Leave (2024) (2024) — passed, margin Statewide: 57.6% Yes — 42.4% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Missouri Amendment 3 — Right to Abortion and Reproductive Freedom (2024) (2024) — passed, margin Statewide: 51.6% Yes — 48.4% No (narrow statewide passage; MO-04 counties voted heavily against)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 23 Construction (share 0.07)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.14)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 Accommodation and Food Services (Lake of the Ozarks tourism) (share 0.1)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 Agriculture Forestry Fishing and Hunting (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 Public Administration (military/federal) (share 0.18)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Missouri Department of Corrections (multiple facilities in district) (3500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Cerner/Oracle Health (remote workforce from MO-04 counties) (1200 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Lake Regional Health System (1800 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (119th Congress)	yea_unverified	2025-07-03	misaligned
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	nay_unverified	2024-04-20	mixed
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling)	nay_unverified	2023-05-31	deviating
Consolidated Appropriations Act 2023	nay_unverified	2022-12-23	mixed
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022	nay_unverified	2022-08-12	misaligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Alford has publicly described himself as a fiscal conservative committed to reducing government spending and the national debt, citing the need to cut"

Vote: on "Alford voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which the Congressional Budget Office "

Alford's stated fiscal conservatism and explicit opposition to deficit spending — the central platform of his 2022 campaign and his justification for voting against the Fiscal Responsibility Act as insufficiently austere — is directly contradicted by

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Alford voted against the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, stating it 'didn't go nearly far enough' in cutting spending, aligning with the House Free"

Vote: on "Alford voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which the Congressional Budget Office "

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Alford voted against the Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023 explicitly because it added to the deficit and didn't cut enough spending, then voted for the OBBBA in 2025 which CBO projected w

Last silence detection: Never

Fort Leonard Wood base realignment risk and BRAC implications of defense budget proposals Alford voted for

730d silent

Expected position: Fort Leonard Wood is the largest employer in MO-04, with approximately 18,000 military and civilian personnel. Alford serves on the House Armed Services Committee and has direct ove

Grain export infrastructure and Mississippi River lock-and-dam system funding in Farm Bill negotiations

730d silent

Expected position: MO-04 agricultural producers depend heavily on Mississippi and Missouri River barge infrastructure to move grain to export markets. The Army Corps of Engineers' lock-and-dam system

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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