Social Shock · Posts That Move Markets

The president posts. The market moves. Who was positioned?

The president can move a specific stock — or the whole market — with a single post. This desk measures each move as an abnormal return (the stock's move minus the S&P 500 over the same window, so market-wide drift doesn't masquerade as a reaction), then asks the accountability question: who was positioned to profit — family, donors, members of Congress — and who's connected to the poster. Abnormal return isolates the move; it does not assert the post caused it.

8measured cases
69posts on tape
±7.4%largest abnormal move
11entities measured

Social shock

Featured cases 8

Posts that moved a named stock or the market, ranked by the largest abnormal return (move net of the S&P 500). Each grid shows the four windows after the post; hover a cell for the raw move and the market move. Open a case for who was positioned to profit.

★ FEATURED Truth Social · Donald Trump 2025-04-09 13:37 archived ↗
THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT

April 9, 2025, 9:37am ET: Trump posted "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!" signed "DJT" — which is also the ticker of his own company, Trump Media. At 1:18pm ET he announced a 90-day tariff pause; the S&P 500 closed up 9.5% (its biggest day since 2008) and Trump Media (DJT) jumped ~22%. Senators Schiff and Gallego asked the Office of Government Ethics to investigate whether the president, his family, or administration officials traded on the timing. No finding of wrongdoing has been made; the controversy is the documented record here. (Sources: PBS NewsHour, NBC News, TIME, NPR — April 2025.)

Trump Media & Technology Group DJT
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
——+7.36%+4.57%
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
★ FEATURED twitter · Donald Trump 2018-03-29 10:57 archived ↗
I have stated my concerns with Amazon long before the Election. Unlike others, they pay little or no taxes to state & local governments, use our Postal System as their Delivery Boy (causing tremendous loss to the U.S.), and are putting many thousands of retailers out of business!

March 29, 2018: Trump tweeted that Amazon pays "little or no taxes" and uses the Postal Service as its "Delivery Boy." Amazon (AMZN) fell roughly 6% by the close — its worst stretch in about six weeks — erasing on the order of $53 billion in market value. The post followed an Axios report that Trump was looking for ways to curb Amazon; Jeff Bezos also owns The Washington Post, a frequent target. (Sources: CNN Money, Washington Post, Fortune, TIME — March 29, 2018.)

Amazon AMZN
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
——-6.97%-6.97%
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
★ FEATURED twitter · Donald Trump 2016-12-12 13:26 archived ↗
The F-35 program and cost is out of control. Billions of dollars can and will be saved on military (and other) purchases after January 20th.

Dec 12, 2016: Trump tweeted that the F-35 program's cost was "out of control." Lockheed Martin (LMT) dropped more than 4% in early trade and closed about 2% lower — an initial ~$4B cut to its market value. The contractor's stock fell on a post about a program it had no chance to defend in real time. (Sources: CNBC, NPR, CNN Money, TIME — Dec 12, 2016.)

Lockheed Martin LMT
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
——-6.17%-6.13%
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
★ FEATURED twitter · Donald Trump 2017-01-03 12:30 archived ↗
General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!

Jan 3, 2017: Trump threatened a "big border tax" on General Motors over a Mexican-made Chevy Cruze. Unlike the defense-stock cases, the market shrugged — GM (GM) dipped less than 1% in premarket trading and recovered the same day, partly because only about 4,500 of those hatchbacks were actually sold in the U.S. in 2016. The honest counter-example: a presidential attack does not automatically move its target, and this desk shows the misses alongside the hits. (Sources: CNBC, CNN Money, Reuters, PolitiFact — Jan 3, 2017.)

General Motors GM
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
——+4.10%+0.98%
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
★ FEATURED twitter · Donald Trump 2016-12-22 14:30 archived ↗
Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35, I have asked Boeing to price-out a comparable F-18 Super Hornet!

Dec 22, 2016: ten days after his first F-35 tweet, Trump said he had asked Boeing to "price-out a comparable F-18 Super Hornet." Lockheed Martin (LMT) fell about 2% — roughly a $1.2B cut to its market value — while Boeing (BA) ticked up about 0.5%. A single post moved two defense contractors in opposite directions; analysts noted there is "no such thing as a comparable F/A-18." (Sources: CNBC, Fortune, Bloomberg, Seattle Times — Dec 22, 2016.)

Lockheed Martin LMT
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
——-0.71%-0.56%
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
★ FEATURED twitter · Donald Trump 2016-12-06 13:52 archived ↗
Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!

Dec 6, 2016: hours into the trading day, president-elect Trump tweeted that Boeing's Air Force One program was "out of control" and should be cancelled. Boeing (BA) fell about 1% to an intraday low of ~$149.75 — roughly a $1.48B market-cap hit — then recovered by the afternoon. A single post moved a major defense contractor's stock before the company had even responded. (Sources: CNBC, NBC News, Fortune — Dec 6, 2016.)

Boeing BA
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
——-0.50%-0.05%
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
Booz Allen Hamilton BAH
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
-0.79%~-0.27%~——
Showing raw move (market baseline not available for these windows). Hover a cell for the baseline.
CACI International CACI
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
-0.28%~+0.02%~——
Showing raw move (market baseline not available for these windows). Hover a cell for the baseline.
Leidos LDOS
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
-0.22%~+0.19%~——
Showing raw move (market baseline not available for these windows). Hover a cell for the baseline.
Palantir Technologies PLTR
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
-0.01%~———
Showing raw move (market baseline not available for these windows). Hover a cell for the baseline.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.
Booz Allen Hamilton BAH
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
+0.60%———
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
CACI International CACI
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
+0.41%———
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
L3Harris Technologies LHX
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
+0.38%———
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Leidos LDOS
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
+0.25%———
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Palantir Technologies PLTR
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
+0.08%———
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
SentinelOne S
15 min1 hour1 day3 days
-0.04%———
Figures are abnormal return — the move minus SPY over the same window. Hover a cell for the raw move and the market move.
Who profited & full windows → Abnormal return isolates the move from the market; it does not assert the post caused it. Mechanism is the reader's call.

How this is measured

Windows

For each post, the system measures price + volume change at four windows after the post timestamp: 15 min · 1 hour · 1 day · 3 days.

Baseline

15m and 1h windows compare against the average of the prior 30 minutes of intraday bars (intraday_pre_post). 1d and 3d windows compare against the prior 5-day daily-close average (prior_5d_avg).

Abnormal return (the headline number)

Each cell shows the move net of the market: the stock's change minus the S&P 500 (SPY) change over the identical window. A stock that rose 0.5% on a day the whole market rose 0.5% shows ~0% abnormal — so broad drift can't masquerade as a reaction. Hover any cell for the raw move and the market move. Where the index baseline can't be computed, the raw move is shown with a ~ marker.

Who profits

The point isn't that a stock moved — it's that the poster controls the move. Each case links the beneficiaries on file (donors, family holdings, contract-holders) and any documented trades in that ticker close to the post (president's family/associates where documented, plus members of Congress from the STOCK Act ledger). Stated as documented overlaps — never as proof of intent.

Data source

Intraday minute bars from Yahoo Finance's public chart endpoint (free, no API key). 1-minute bars are available for the last ~7 days; 5-minute bars for ~60 days. Older posts can only show 1d / 3d windows once daily prices have been ingested.

Honest labels (not "no data")

When a window can't be computed, the row shows why: intraday_unavailable (post older than 60 days), market_closed (weekend / holiday / off-hours), no_ticker (entity is mentioned but not publicly traded), pending (window has not elapsed yet).

Correlation only

Same-window price moves are reported; causal mechanism is not asserted. A defense-stock dip after a personnel announcement could be the announcement, the broader tape that day, an unrelated company event, or pure coincidence. The measurement documents the timing; the inference is the reader's.

Scope

Public posts from the sitting president (Truth Social and X). Mention list is operator-confirmed at file time — automated mention-extraction is intentionally narrow to avoid false ticker links. Source code: lib/post-window-impact.ts + lib/intraday-prices.ts.

Post archive 61 not yet measured

Every other filed post in reverse-chronological order. Posts without measured impact are usually older than the 60-day intraday window, fell outside US-market hours, or mention only privately-held entities. Open a post for the full per-window grid and the linked beneficiary cascade.