[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

John R. Carter

Republican · Representative, TX ·31

Score Components

9 LOW

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

18 → 5

Intelligence Volume 10%

48 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 843,922 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 70.2%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 38.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 6.0%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $96,016 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 16: Codifying Citizenship Requirement for Voting in State Elections (2025) — passed, margin 76.2% Yes – 23.8% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 13: Increase Homestead Exemption to $140,000 (2025) — passed, margin 83.6% Yes – 16.4% No

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 4: Property Tax Relief (Homestead Exemption Increase) (2023) — passed, margin 83.3% Yes – 16.7% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 5417 (share 0.079)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 5241 (share 0.087)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 6113 (share 0.098)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 9281 (share 0.112)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 6221 (share 0.125)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Williamson County Government (2000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Round Rock Independent School District (6000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Baylor Scott & White Health (7000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Dell Technologies (13000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Fort Cavazos (III Armored Corps) (48000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Texas's 31st Congressional District covers a strip of Central Texas from the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County through Bell County to Temple and Gatesville. The district has a population of approximately 844,000 and is rated R+29 (stable Republican). It is one of only two Texas districts never represented

secondary

Voted yea on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Budget Reconciliation – Concurrence in Senate Amendment)) on 2025-07-03: Carter voted with all 218 of his Republican colleagues on this near-party-line vote (218-214) enacting sweeping budget reconciliation including deep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP alongside permanent tax cuts. TX-31 has 6% poverty and an estim

primary · 2025-07-03

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Budget Reconciliation – Concurrence in Senate Amendm	yea	2025-07-03	mixed
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	yea	2024-04-20	deviating
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling Suspension)	nay	2023-05-31	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "In his constituent newsletter, Rep. Carter promises to deliver 'principled small government' and pledges to 'fight to cut ridiculous spending.'"

Vote: on "In his year-end newsletter, Rep. Carter touted bringing back $225 million in local projects to his d"

Both quotes come from the same secondary source (wbdaily.com) citing Carter's own newsletters. His 'principled small government' rhetoric conflicts with his touting of $225 million in earmarked spending, which tripled year-over-year.

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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