[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Henry Cuellar

Democratic · Representative, TX ·28

Score Components

36 HIGH

Connection Density 20%

4 → 1

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

54 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Car-dependent commuting: 74.4% drive alone; 1.0% use public transit; mean commute 25.5 min

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index (2026 rating): D+6 — Lean Seat; R shift +8 from prior cycle

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 6.1% (national: 3.5%) — elevated, reflecting border economy volatility

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 21.2% (national: 33.7%) — far below national average

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 33.7 (national: 38.5) — significantly younger; largest cohort is 10-19 at 16.1%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 68.3% (national: 65.5%)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 15.8% (national: 12.4%) — significantly above average; 22% lack a high school diploma

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic/Latino population share: 75% — one of the most Hispanic districts in the United States

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024 estimate): 789,743 — one of the fastest-growing districts in South Texas

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $65,728 (national: $37,585)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: SB 8 (2021): Texas Heartbeat Act — effectively banning abortion at ~6 weeks with private civil enforcement (2021) — passed, margin Enacted by legislature; U.S. Supreme Court allowed to stand

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Texas Proposition 1 (2023): Right to Farm, Ranch, Timber, and Wildlife (2023) — passed, margin 79% Yes to 21% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 (share 0.1)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.14)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 211 (share 0.12)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 48-49 (share 0.18)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Laredo Sector) (2500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Laredo Medical Center (2000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: International Bank of Commerce (IBC) (3500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: H-E-B Grocery Company (4000 employees)

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Geo Group major_donor Career (2001-2024): $164,490 total ($100,100 individuals, $64,390 PAC) — Cuellar's #1 career contributor. GEO Group is t

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Protecting America's Workforce Act (restoring collective bargaining rights for o	nay	2025-12-11	misaligned
Rescissions Act of 2025 ($9B in cuts: CPB, USAID, foreign assistance)	nay	2025-06-12	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (budget reconciliation — Medicaid/SNAP cuts, tax refo	nay	2025-05-22	aligned
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (documentary proof of citizenshi	yea	2025-04-10	misaligned
Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (banning transgender athlete	yea	2025-01-14	misaligned
Laken Riley Act (mandatory immigration detention for theft-related arrests witho	yea	2025-01-07	misaligned
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 ($60.8B military and econ	yea	2024-04-20	aligned
Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 (codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law)	nay	2021-09-24	misaligned
Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act (expanding union organizing rights)	nay	2020-02-06	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Cuellar stated after his indictment: 'I want to be clear that both my wife and I are innocent of these allegations. Everything I have done in Congress"

Vote: on "On December 3, 2025, President Trump granted Cuellar a 'full and unconditional PARDON.' Cuellar acce"

Cuellar publicly maintained absolute innocence of all 14 federal bribery and money laundering charges, yet accepted a 'full and unconditional' presidential pardon from Donald Trump — an act that, under Supreme Court precedent (Burdick v. United State

reversal 90/100

Platform: "Cuellar voted against the Women's Health Protection Act (H.R. 3755) on September 24, 2021 — the lone Democrat out of 218 votes to oppose codifying Roe"

Vote: on "Cuellar voted for the Laken Riley Act on January 7, 2025, joining 47 other Democrats to require mand"

Cuellar was the lone House Democrat to vote against codifying Roe v. Wade in 2021, then in 2025 voted for the Laken Riley Act (mandating detention for undocumented immigrants), the SAVE Act (voter ID restrictions), and the anti-transgender sports ban

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Cuellar voted against the PRO Act (H.R. 2474) on February 6, 2020 — one of only 7 House Democrats to oppose the labor-backed bill. He stated the bill "

Vote: on "Cuellar hosted a union roundtable with more than a dozen South Texas labor leaders in June 2023, sta"

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Cuellar told labor leaders at a 2023 roundtable that he 'proudly represents a district with a strong union presence' and would 'advocate for policies that empower workers,' yet voted again

Last silence detection: Never

Cuellar has never hosted an in-person town hall — a pattern cited by the Texas Democratic Party as grounds for condemnation

7788d silent

Expected position: As the elected representative of 789,743 constituents in a majority-Hispanic border district with 15.8% poverty since 2005, Cuellar would be expected to hold regular open, in-person

Cuellar refused to answer whether he supports a Gaza ceasefire — aligning with AIPAC's position while 75% of his district is Hispanic and aligned with progressive foreign policy preferences

238d silent

Expected position: As the representative of a district where AIPAC spent nearly $2 million to defend him in 2022 but where constituents have progressive views on foreign policy, Cuellar would be expec

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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