[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Salud O. Carbajal

Democratic · Representative, CA ·24

Score Components

10 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

18 → 5

Intelligence Volume 10%

54 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+25 (shifted D+4 since last redistricting)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: average commute time: 21.4 minutes (vs. 26.4 nationally)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: public transit utilization: 1.7% (vs. 5% nationally)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: unemployment rate: 5.9% (vs. 3.5% nationally)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median rent: $2,110 (vs. $1,163 nationally — nearly double)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median home value: $836,800 (vs. $303,400 nationally)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 39.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 56.1%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 37.4 (29% in the 20-39 working-age bracket)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 39.2% (15.9% post-graduate; 13.9% lack a high school diploma)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 55.2% (vs. 65.5% nationally — renter-heavy district)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 7.6% (vs. 12.4% nationally)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $97,920 (vs. $37,585 national median)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: population: 757,747 (2024 LegisLetter ACS)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 36 — Homelessness, Drug Addiction and Theft Reduction Act (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 68.4% Yes — 31.6% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 1 — Behavioral Health Services and Bond Measure (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 50.2% Yes — 49.8% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.115)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 (share 0.127)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.167)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Wine industry (Santa Barbara County and San Luis Obispo County vineyards and wineries) (10000 employees)

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No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Iran War Powers Resolution — March 5, 2026	yea	2026-03-05	deviating
Government Funding Continuing Resolution — November 2025 Shutdown Deal	nay	2025-11-12	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — House final passage, July 3, 2025	nay	2025-07-03	aligned
Rescissions Act of 2025 (CPB Defunding, June 12, 2025)	nay	2025-06-12	aligned
FY 2025 Budget Resolution (Reconciliation Framework, February 2025)	nay	2025-02-25	aligned
Laken Riley Act (119th Congress, January 7, 2025)	nay	2025-01-07	aligned
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 ($61 billion military aid	yea	2024-04-20	aligned
Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 ($26 billion military aid)	yea	2024-04-20	mixed

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Carbajal voted yea on H.R. 8034 ($26 billion Israel military aid) on April 20, 2024, calling it critical to 'break the gridlock on the life-saving aid"

Vote: on "Despite his criticism of Netanyahu and calls for humanitarian aid and ceasefire, Carbajal has refuse"

Carbajal criticizes Netanyahu's 'reckless rhetoric,' condemns civilian deaths, calls for humanitarian aid and ceasefire, and demands Israel comply with international law — yet continues to vote for unconditional military aid packages and refuses to s

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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