[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

John R. Curtis

Republican · Senator, UT

Score Components

26 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

82 → 21

Intelligence Volume 10%

52 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+32

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Mormon (LDS) adherent share: ~55-60% (Pew/PRRI estimates)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic/Latino population share: 15.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 32 (youngest in U.S.)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 36.1%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 71.5%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: unemployment rate: 4.0% (January 2026)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 8.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $95,166 (2020-2024 ACS)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Utah Constitutional Amendment A — Strengthen Education Funding (income tax earmark) (2024) — passed, margin 62% Yes — 38% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (share 0.097)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.116)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.126)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Brigham Young University (5000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Hill Air Force Base (23000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University of Utah / University of Utah Health (23000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Intermountain Healthcare (42000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Utah is a deeply conservative western state of approximately 3.54 million residents, with roughly 85% concentrated along the Wasatch Front (Salt Lake City, Provo, Ogden metropolitan corridor). The state has a median household income of $95,166 (Census 2020-2024), well above the national median, with a low 8.6% povert

secondary

Voted yea on S. Con. Res. 22 (Continuing Resolution to Fund Government — September 2025) on 2025-09-19: Curtis voted to advance a continuing resolution to fund the government, breaking from fiscal hawks like Mike Lee who voted nay. The CR was rejected 44-48. This pattern — Curtis voting to fund government while Lee and MAGA conservatives vote no — echoes his

primary · 2025-09-19

Voted nay on H.Con.Res. 14 (Senate Budget Resolution FY2025 — SAVE Act filibuster stance) on 2026-02-11: Curtis opposed using the 'nuclear option' to pass the SAVE Act voter ID bill via a talking filibuster bypass — a procedural position that put him at odds with Trump, Senate MAGA allies, and his Utah colleague Mike Lee. Curtis argued the strategy was 'a sl

primary · 2026-02-11

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Opposing Jeremy Carl for Assistant Secretary of State for International Organiza	nay	2026-02-12	aligned
Senate Budget Resolution FY2025 — SAVE Act filibuster stance	nay	2026-02-11	deviating
Continuing Resolution to Fund Government — September 2025	yea	2025-09-19	deviating
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — Senate passage	yea	2025-07-01	mixed
Confirmation of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense	yea	2025-01-24	mixed
Laken Riley Act	yea	2025-01-20	aligned
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	yea	2024-04-20	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Curtis founded the Conservative Climate Caucus in 2021 to educate House Republicans on climate policies, stating 'climate change is a global issue.' H"

Vote: on "Curtis voted yea on the OBBBA (July 1, 2025) — legislation that largely dismantles federal tax incen"

Curtis built his national brand as the Republican who takes climate change seriously — founding the Conservative Climate Caucus and being named to Time's climate leaders list — yet voted for legislation that dismantles federal clean-energy tax incent

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "In his January 2025 op-ed for The Hill, Curtis argued that Trump's mass deportation agenda was not being 'wielded with a proper portion of compassion'"

Vote: on "Curtis co-sponsored and voted for the Laken Riley Act (January 2025), legislation requiring mandator"

Curtis publicly called for 'compassion' in immigration enforcement and wrote movingly about watching a migrant's arrest, yet he co-sponsored and voted for the Laken Riley Act — legislation civil liberties groups argue mandates detention for nonviolen

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Curtis campaigned as a fiscal conservative, voting against the 2019 Bipartisan Budget Act on deficit grounds and introducing legislation to withhold c"

Vote: on "Curtis voted yea on the OBBBA (July 1, 2025), which the CBO projected would add $3.3 trillion to the"

Curtis campaigned as a fiscal conservative, withheld his own pay during shutdowns, and voted against the 2019 budget deal on deficit grounds — yet he voted for the OBBBA (2025), which the CBO projected would add $3.3 trillion to the deficit. The fisc

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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