[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Mike Carey

Republican · Representative, OH ·15

Score Components

18 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

10 → 3

Contradiction Risk 25%

46 → 12

Intelligence Volume 10%

40 → 4

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Small Business Share of Employment: 44.2%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $70,897

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 1 (Right to Abortion/Reproductive Rights) (2023) — passed, margin 56.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 4885 (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 5241 (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: NetJets (2500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Cardinal Health (5000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] District summary: Ohio's 15th District serves a mix of suburban Columbus, including high-growth areas in Franklin County, and more rural counties to the south and west like Madison, Fayette, and Clinton. It is a regional hub for logistics, insurance, and medical manufacturing.

secondary

Voted nay on H.R. 2617 (Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023) on 2022-12-23: Voted against the major funding bill despite significant infrastructure needs in his district, prioritizing party/ideological alignment over constituent resource allocation.

primary · 2022-12-23

Voted yea on H.R. 8998 (Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2025) on 2024-07-24: Voted to slash EPA funding and environmental oversight, aligning with the regulatory relief requested by his primary energy sector donors.

primary · 2024-07-24

Voted yea on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Lower Energy Costs Act provisions)) on 2025-07-03: A direct benefit to former lobbying clients; the bill repeals the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund and streamlines fossil fuel permits while Carey remains a top recipient of coal PAC funds.

primary · 2025-07-03

[disclosure] Lobbying disclosure reports showing Michael Carey as Vice President of Government Affairs for Murray Energy Corporation for over 20 years.

primary · 2021-05-01

[platform] Mike Carey is a conservative outsider who has spent his career holding politicians accountable and fighting for working class families.

primary · 2021-08-03

Received $10,000 from the American Electric Power PAC during the 2024 election cycle.

primary · 2024-10-15

Career total of $287,540 from the Energy & Natural Resources sector, primarily driven by coal mining and electric utility interests.

secondary · 2026-05-02

Mike Carey filed filing with the SEC on 2019-08-08. Accession number: N/A.

secondary · 2019-08-08

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Lower Energy Costs Act provisions)	yea	2025-07-03	aligned
Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act	yea	2024-07-24	aligned
Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023	nay	2022-12-23	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Mike Carey is a conservative outsider who has spent his career holding politicians accountable and fighting for working class families."

Vote: on "Lobbying disclosure reports showing Michael Carey as Vice President of Government Affairs for Murray"

Carey campaigns as an 'outsider' despite a multi-decade career as a high-level federal lobbyist for the coal industry, a core component of the political establishment he critiques.

Last silence detection: Never

Black Lung Disability Trust Fund solvency

484d silent

Expected position: Advocacy for permanent extension of the excise tax on coal to ensure fund stability for miners in his region. Evidence of activity on adjacent topics: Extremely vocal on the 'Pay L

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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