[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Elijah Crane

Republican · Representative, AZ ·2

Score Components

26 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

64 → 16

Intelligence Volume 10%

54 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: tribal population share (approximate): ~20%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 42.3

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree attainment: 26.2%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 73.9%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: unemployment rate: 6.3%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 11.3%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $67,729

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Arizona Proposition 139 (Right to Abortion / Arizona Abortion Access Act) (2024) — passed, margin 61.4% for, 38.6% against (statewide); CD2 results not separately tabulated

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) (share 0.07)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Construction (23) (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Educational Services (61) (share 0.1)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Retail Trade (44-45) (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Healthcare and Social Assistance (62) (share 0.18)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Flagstaff Medical Center / Northern Arizona Healthcare (healthcare) (3000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Yavapai Regional Medical Center / Dignity Health (healthcare) (2500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Northern Arizona University (education) (4000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Navajo Nation Government (tribal government) (8000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] District summary: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is the largest congressional district in Arizona, covering approximately 60% of the state's land mass from south of Phoenix to the New Mexico and Utah borders. It encompasses much of northern and eastern Arizona, serving approximately 826,257 constituents. The district is rated R+

secondary

Voted yea on H.R. 9053 / H.R. 9054 (Veterans Gun Rights Restoration Act and Safeguarding Veterans 2nd Amendment Rights Act (committee passage)) on 2024-07-25: Crane introduced and advanced two bills to protect veterans' Second Amendment rights after a VA fiduciary rule threatened to disarm veterans assigned financial managers. As a former Navy SEAL, Crane's

inferential · 2024-07-25

Voted yea on H.R. 2670 (National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 (Crane Amendment on DEI in military)) on 2024-06-05: Crane proposed an amendment to the FY2024 NDAA to prohibit the Pentagon from requiring training in 'certain race-based concepts.' His amendment sparked the 'colored people' controversy during floor debate. Democrats overwhelmin

primary · 2024-06-05

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Tribal Trust Land Homeownership Act of 2025	nay	2026-03-04	misaligned
Housing for the 21st Century Act (bipartisan affordable housing package)	nay	2026-02-09	misaligned
Continuing Resolution to end the 43-day government shutdown (November 2025)	yea	2025-11-12	mixed
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Trump's signature 2025 budget reconciliation bill)	yea	2025-07-03	misaligned
Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2025 (Dec. 20, 2024, government funding b	nay	2024-12-20	deviating
Veterans Gun Rights Restoration Act and Safeguarding Veterans 2nd Amendment Righ	yea	2024-07-25	aligned
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 (Crane Amendment on DEI	yea	2024-06-05	mixed
Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	nay	2024-04-20	deviating
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	nay	2024-04-20	deviating
Declaring the office of Speaker of the House of Representatives to be vacant (Mc	yea	2023-10-03	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "On July 14, 2023, during floor debate on his NDAA amendment to prohibit the Pentagon from requiring diversity training, Crane referred to Black Americ"

Vote: on "According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is 58.5% White, 18.2% Hisp"

Crane used a racially charged term ('colored people') while introducing an amendment to ban diversity training in the military, then claimed to 'misspeak.' His remark was stricken from the congressional record — a rare rebuke. The incident jarred aga

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Crane campaigned on fiscal conservatism and raged against the December 2020 COVID relief package, writing '27 Trillion in debt' in a campaign communic"

Vote: on "Crane's company, Bottle Breacher, lawfully took nearly $70,000 in a Paycheck Protection Program loan"

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Crane built his political brand on fiscal conservatism and railed against federal spending while his own company accepted and kept nearly $70,000 in forgiven PPP loans — a direct federal s

Last silence detection: Never

In-person town hall meetings — constituent accessibility and accountability

1213d silent

Expected position: As the sole representative for Arizona's largest congressional district — covering approximately 60% of the state, including 14 of Arizona's 22 federally recognized tribes — Crane w

Tribal engagement — failure to visit or consult Navajo Nation and other tribal communities on legislation affecting them

1213d silent

Expected position: With tribal members constituting approximately 20% of his district's population and 14 federally recognized tribes within CD2 boundaries, Crane would be expected to hold regular con

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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