[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Richard J. Durbin

Democratic · Senator, IL

Score Components

15 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

36 → 9

Intelligence Volume 10%

55 → 6

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Illinois Senate primary (2026): Durbin retiring; crowded Democratic field vying to succeed him

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+15

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: unemployment rate: 4.9%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: rural hospitals at risk: Multiple rural Illinois hospitals threatened by Medicaid cuts

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid enrollment (projected OBBBA loss): ~500,000 Illinoisans projected to lose coverage ($48 billion cut)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: foreign-born population: ~14.9% (1.85 million)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 38.9

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 37.2%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 66.8%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 11.8% (Data USA 2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $81,702 (2024 ACS)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: population (2024): 12,518,071 (2024 ACS estimate)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Illinois Amendment 1 — Right to Collective Bargaining (2022) (2022) — passed, margin 58.6% Yes — 41.4% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.11)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.15)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Walmart (Illinois operations) (55000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: State of Illinois government (60000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University of Illinois system (Urbana-Champaign, Chicago, Springfield) (25000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Advocate Aurora Health (Illinois operations) (25000 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Iran War Powers Resolution (Baldwin War Powers Resolution, April 2026)	yea	2026-04-15	aligned
Government Funding & ACA Subsidy Extension — November 2025 Shutdown Deal	yea	2025-11-10	deviating
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — Senate passage, July 1, 2025	nay	2025-07-01	aligned
GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Regulation, June 2025)	nay	2025-06-17	aligned
Confirmation of Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security	nay	2025-01-25	deviating
Confirmation of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense	nay	2025-01-24	deviating
Laken Riley Act	nay	2025-01-20	deviating
Sanders Joint Resolutions of Disapproval on Arms Sales to Israel (November 2024)	yea	2024-11-20	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "In September 2008, Durbin attended a closed-door briefing with Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke about the unfolding financial cris"

Vote: on "The Washington Examiner editorial board wrote that 'the circumstantial evidence strongly suggests th"

Durbin claimed there was 'nothing that was told to me that wasn't in the morning paper' regarding his September 2008 stock trades made the day after a closed briefing with Paulson and Bernanke. The Washington Examiner called the circumstantial eviden

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "Durbin was the first U.S. Senator to call for a ceasefire in Gaza on November 2, 2023, stating: 'We need to have a ceasefire... I think it's time for "

Vote: on "Durbin was AIPAC's 'first successful recruit' in 1982. He was elected to the House with over half hi"

Durbin was AIPAC's 'first successful recruit' in 1982 and built his early career with heavy pro-Israel donor backing. By 2019, he was the only Illinois Democrat voting against Sanders' Gaza human rights disclosure amendment. Yet in November 2023, Dur

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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