[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Warren Davidson

Republican · Representative, OH ·8

Score Components

24 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

54 → 14

Intelligence Volume 10%

51 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 30.7% (national avg. 33.7%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+26 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: 74.5% White (non-Hispanic), 13% Black, remainder Hispanic/Asian/other

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 71.9% (national avg. 65.5%)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 7.5% (national avg. 12.4%)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2023 ACS Estimate): 788,819

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $78,441 (ACS 2019-2023 5-Year Estimate)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 2 — Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2023) (2023) — passed, margin 57.0% Yes to 43.0% No (statewide)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 1 — Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative (2023) (2023) — passed, margin 56.8% Yes to 43.2% No (statewide)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 - Public Administration (incl. military/defense) (share 0.1)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.12)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.16)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.22)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: GE Aerospace (Butler County) (1500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Procter & Gamble (Butler County operations) (1800 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Cleveland-Cliffs (AK Steel) (2000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Miami University (Oxford, OH) (4000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (32000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Ohio's 8th Congressional District sits on the state's western edge bordering Indiana, encompassing all or parts of Butler, Darke, Mercer, Miami, Preble, and Clark counties. Major cities include Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Springfield, Troy, and Piqua. The district is heavily Republican with a Cook PVI of R+26. T

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Voted yea on H.J.Res. 118 (119th Congress) (Iran War Powers Resolution (March 2026)) on 2026-03-05: Davidson was one of only two House Republicans to vote with Democrats to limit Trump's authority to continue military operations against Iran without congressional authorization. He cited his West Point background and the Constitution's war powers clause. The

primary · 2026-03-05

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Iran War Powers Resolution (March 2026)	yea	2026-03-05	deviating
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (FY2025 Reconciliation)	nay	2025-05-22	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: ""I'm a fiscal conservative. I believe deficits do matter. I've voted twice against raising the ceiling on the national debt, and voted in favor of PAY"

Vote: on "Davidson voted Yea on H.R. 3746, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (debt ceiling suspension), ca"

Davidson campaigned as a fiscal hawk who votes against debt ceiling increases and demands PAYGO offsets, yet he voted for the 2023 debt ceiling deal that suspended borrowing limits without dollar-for-dollar expenditure cuts. He publicly praised the d

position_evolution 30/100

Platform: ""I'm a fiscal conservative. I believe deficits do matter. I've voted twice against raising the ceiling on the national debt, and voted in favor of PAY"

Vote: on "Davidson stated he voted against H.R. 1 (119th Congress, the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act') because '"

Davidson's deficit-hawk stance is consistent across the 2023 deal and 2025 megabill — he voted Yea on one and Nay on the other based on differing assessments of spending cuts. The 2023 bill contained provisions to claw back unspent COVID funds and re

statement_vs_disclosure 30/100

Platform: ""I'm a fiscal conservative. I believe deficits do matter. I've voted twice against raising the ceiling on the national debt, and voted in favor of PAY"

Vote: on "Davidson voted Yea on H.R. 4763 (FIT21), a bill he co-sponsored that creates a new regulatory framew"

Davidson's small-government, anti-regulatory posture contrasts with co-sponsoring FIT21, which creates new federal regulatory frameworks for digital assets. His crypto industry donors ($35,500) raise a mild alignment question, though crypto donors ar

Last silence detection: Never

Social Security and Medicare reform specifics

1095d silent

Expected position: As a self-described 'devout fiscal hawk' on the House Financial Services Committee who advocates for balanced budgets and spending cuts, Davidson would be expected to articulate spe

Constituent town halls and in-person public forums (2024-2025)

603d silent

Expected position: As the representative for 788,819 constituents in Ohio's 8th District, Davidson would be expected to hold regular public town halls to solicit constituent feedback, particularly dur

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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