[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Sarah Elfreth

Democratic · Representative, MD ·3

Score Components

17 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

10 → 3

Contradiction Risk 25%

36 → 9

Intelligence Volume 10%

50 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+): 42.7%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population Asian (Non-Hispanic): 10.5%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population Black or African American (Non-Hispanic): 17.4%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population White (Non-Hispanic): 56.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate (2024): 5.57%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income (2024): $133,046

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Maryland Question 1 (2024) — Reproductive Freedom Constitutional Amendment (2024) — passed, margin 74% yes – 26% no

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.08)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 - Educational Services (share 0.09)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.13)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 - Public Administration (share 0.11)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 54 - Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (share 0.15)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Howard County Public School System (9000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: U.S. Naval Academy (2500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University of Maryland Medical System (5000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (8500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Fort Meade (U.S. Army/NSA) (56000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Maryland's 3rd Congressional District encompasses all of Howard County and portions of Anne Arundel and Carroll counties in central Maryland, including the state capital of Annapolis. It is a safely Democratic, affluent, and highly educated district with a median household income of approximately $133,046 — well abov

secondary

Voted nay on H.R. 22 (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act) on 2025-02-06: Elfreth voted against legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration, which opponents described as a voter-suppression measure. Her vote aligns with her Democratic district and party, but the bill passed narrowly (220-208), making her oppositi

primary · 2025-02-06

Voted nay on H.R. 5371 (FY26 National Defense Authorization Act) on 2025-09-10: Elfreth voted against the annual defense bill despite her district housing Fort Meade, NSA, Johns Hopkins APL, and the Naval Academy — and despite securing 29 of her own provisions in the bill. She cited politicization and lack of guardrails on troop deployment. This pits constit

inferential · 2025-09-10

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
FY26 National Defense Authorization Act	nay	2025-09-10	mixed
Rescissions Act of 2025 (codifying DOGE cuts)	nay	2025-06-12	aligned
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act	nay	2025-02-06	deviating
Child Predator Empowerment Act (transgender athletics ban)	nay_unverified	2025-01-14	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "Sarah Elfreth's campaign benefited from $4.2 million in independent expenditures by AIPAC's United Democracy Project, which promotes unconditional U.S"

Vote: on "In her July 25, 2025 statement, Elfreth called on Israel to 'take immediate action to address the ne"

Elfreth accepted $4.2M in support from AIPAC, a group that opposes conditioning U.S. aid to Israel, but later called for Israel to take immediate action on civilian protection and humanitarian access. These are distinct policy moments — accepting sup

statement_vs_disclosure 30/100

Platform: "Elfreth's campaign touted her as a steadfast gun safety advocate, and she was endorsed by gun-control groups. She voted against ghost guns and firearm"

Vote: on "According to Maryland Bay News, critics including a rival campaign manager argued Elfreth's gun cont"

Elfreth's campaign presented her as a strong gun-control advocate, while rival campaign operatives claimed specific votes showed a softer record. Both claims derive from interpretations of her Maryland Senate voting record, and the primary source rec

Last silence detection: Never

Israel-Gaza war and U.S. military aid to Israel (April–May 2024 primary campaign)

43d silent

Expected position: As a Democratic candidate for Congress receiving over $4.2 million in AIPAC-affiliated super PAC support, Elfreth would be expected to articulate a clear position on the Israel-Gaza

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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