[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Brett Guthrie

Republican · Representative, KY ·2

Score Components

36 HIGH

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

57 → 6

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Property Value: $213,900 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: 2024 Presidential Vote (Kentucky statewide): Trump 64.5% — Harris 33.9%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid Enrollment: Nearly 1 in 3 Kentuckians enrolled in Medicaid (statewide); Kentucky expanded Medicaid under the ACA

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: White (Non-Hispanic) ~84%, Black or African American ~5.1%, Hispanic ~4.6%, Two or More Races ~3.1%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Age: 39 years

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 23.8% (vs 33.7% national)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 70.4% (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 14.7% (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $66,796 (2024); National: $78,538; Kentucky: $60,000 range

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 765,661 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Kentucky Constitutional Amendment 2 (2024) — Allow public tax dollars to support private and charter schools (2024) — failed, margin ~65% No — ~35% Yes; defeated in every Kentucky county

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Kentucky Constitutional Amendment 1 (2024) — Requires U.S. citizenship to vote in state elections (2024) — passed, margin 62.4% Yes — 37.6% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 (Public Administration — military/defense via Fort Knox) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 (Educational Services) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (Health Care and Social Assistance) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (Manufacturing — automotive, aluminum, food processing) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Trace Die Cast Inc. (540 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: GM Corvette Assembly Plant (1100 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Logan Aluminum Inc. (1345 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Dart Container Corporation (1600 employees)

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No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
FENCES Act — Amends Clean Air Act to clarify standards for emissions emanating f	yea	2026-02-26	aligned
Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution	yea	2026-02-25	misaligned
National Coal Council Reestablishment Act — Reconstitutes a federal coal advisor	yea	2025-09-11	deviating
District of Columbia Policing Protection Act — Overrides DC local law to establi	yea	2025-09-09	deviating
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — Permanent extension of 2017 tax cuts, border securi	yea	2025-07-03	aligned
FY 2025 Budget Resolution — Framework directing $880 billion in spending cuts fr	yea	2025-02-25	misaligned
EPIC Act — Extend Medicare drug price negotiation exemption period for small-mol	sponsored	2024-01-31	aligned
Affordable Insulin Now Act — Would cap insulin at $35 per month for insured pati	nay	2022-03-31	aligned
American Health Care Act — Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act; projected	yea	2017-05-04	misaligned
Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act — Full repeal of the Affordable Ca	yea	2011-01-19	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Guthrie tweeted on August 25: 'President Biden's taxpayer-funded student loan debt cancellation plan is a bribe to score political points ahead of the"

Vote: on "Trace Die Cast Inc., the family-owned aluminum die-casting business where Guthrie serves as an uncom"

Guthrie publicly characterized student loan forgiveness as a taxpayer-funded 'bribe,' yet his own family business received $4.3 million in federal PPP loan forgiveness — a direct taxpayer subsidy. The Kentucky Democratic Party noted this represented

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "As Energy & Commerce Committee Chair, Guthrie led the committee in crafting the House framework that strengthened Medicaid for 'the most vulnerable' a"

Vote: on "The FY 2025 Budget Resolution passed the House directing the Energy and Commerce Committee to cut $8"

Guthrie publicly claimed the One Big Beautiful Bill would 'protect health care for our most vulnerable Americans,' yet the reconciliation framework he voted for and helped negotiate directed $880 billion in cuts largely from Medicaid, the program cov

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Guthrie introduced H.R. 7174 (the EPIC Act) to extend the exemption period from Medicare drug price negotiation for small-molecule drugs, which would "

Vote: on "Guthrie received $507,000 from the pharmaceuticals and health products industry in the 2024 cycle — "

Guthrie introduced legislation to weaken Medicare's ability to negotiate lower drug prices (H.R. 7174) while simultaneously being the top recipient of pharmaceutical industry campaign cash in Congress, having received $507,000 from the industry in th

Last silence detection: Never

Conflict of interest as Trace Die Cast board member while serving on Energy & Commerce Committee

2534d silent

Expected position: As chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee with jurisdiction over motor vehicle safety and interstate commerce, Guthrie would be expected to address his board membership on Trace

PPP loan forgiveness for family business Trace Die Cast

950d silent

Expected position: As a congressman who publicly criticized student loan debt forgiveness as a 'bribe to score political points,' Guthrie would be expected to address the $4.3 million in PPP loans tha

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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