[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Michael Guest

Republican · Representative, MS ·3

Score Components

19 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

36 → 9

Intelligence Volume 10%

46 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 72.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White Population: 58.4% (431,000)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Black Population: 33.5% (247,000)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 18%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $60,128

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Mississippi Amendment - State Flag (2020) — passed, margin 71% yes

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Mississippi Initiative 65 - Medical Marijuana (2020) — passed, margin 68% yes

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing (share 0.04)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 - Educational Services (share 0.1)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.11)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care & Social Assistance (share 0.15)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Educational Services sector (36368 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Manufacturing sector (38740 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Health Care & Social Assistance sector (51969 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District covers central portions of the state including the Jackson metropolitan area and surrounding rural counties. The district is 58.4% white and 33.5% Black, with a median household income of $60,128 and 18% poverty rate. Key industries include healthcare, manufacturing, and educa

secondary

Voted yea on H.R. 7567 (Defense appropriations bill) on 2025-06-01: Guest serves on Armed Services Committee andvoted for defense appropriations aligned with defense contractor donors. This vote benefits his top donor sector while MS-03's 18% poverty rate and healthcare as top employer suggest constituent interest in domestic spending over military expansion

primary · 2025-06-01

Voted yea on H.R. 3233 (National Commission to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol) on 2021-05-19: Guest was one of only 35 House Republicans to vote for the independent commission. Trump opposed this vote and later campaigned against Guest. MS-03 voted 71% for Trump in 2024, making Guest's January 6 vote a cross-pressure event be

primary · 2021-05-19

Voted nay on H.Res. 503 (Impeaching Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors) on 2025-06-24: MS-03 has a 33.5% Black population and 18% poverty rate. Biden's impeachment was rejected by House Republicans including Guest, who had previously supported investigating January 6. Voting against impeaching Biden while h

primary · 2025-06-24

[vote] Guest voted against establishing the Pelosi Select Committee on January 6, preferring an independent bipartisan commission

primary · 2021-01-06

[vote] Guest voted against the Democratic impeachment of Trump, stating the resolution was 'a partisan attempt to score political points'

primary · 2019-12-18

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Impeaching Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President of the United States, for high crimes	nay	2025-06-24	mixed
Defense appropriations bill	yea	2025-06-01	aligned
National Commission to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States C	yea	2021-05-19	mixed

Last contradiction analysis: Never

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "Guest stated he voted for the January 6 commission because 'the American people deserve to know what happened' on January 6"

Vote: on "Guest voted against establishing the Pelosi Select Committee on January 6, preferring an independent"

Guest initially opposed the Democratic Pelosi Select Committee as 'partisan' but then voted for the bipartisan independent January 6 commission - demonstrating a position evolution where he supported investigation through a different mechanism after

reversal 60/100

Platform: "Guest stated he voted for the January 6 commission because 'the American people deserve to know what happened' on January 6"

Vote: on "Guest voted against the Democratic impeachment of Trump, stating the resolution was 'a partisan atte"

Guest claimed the American people deserve to know what happened on January 6 and voted for investigation, yet voted against impeaching Trump for actions related to January 6 - a direct contradiction between his stated support for accountability and h

Last silence detection: Never

Trump endorsement and primary challenger

152d silent

Expected position: As one of the 35 Republicans who voted for Jan 6 commission, Guest would be expected to address Trump's opposition and his primary challenger Evidence of activity on adjacent topic

Gaetz ethics committee report

26d silent

Expected position: As Chairman of the House Ethics Committee, Guest would be expected to comment on the committee's handling of Matt Gaetz ethics report Evidence of activity on adjacent topics: Guest

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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