[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Josh Harder

Democratic · Representative, CA ·9

Score Components

10 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

18 → 5

Intelligence Volume 10%

50 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population: 42.4%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 61.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 22.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 7.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 9.9%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $91,983 (2024 est.)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 3: Constitutional Right to Marriage (Repeal Proposition 8) (2024) — passed, margin 62.6% Yes – 37.4% No (statewide)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 1: Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom (2022) — passed, margin 66.6% Yes – 33.4% No (statewide)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 4529 (share 0.062)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 3119 (share 0.074)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 1119 (share 0.097)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 6221 (share 0.128)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 4931 (share 0.135)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Dignity Health / St. Joseph's Medical Center (3000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Stockton Unified School District (4000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Kaiser Permanente (5000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: San Joaquin County Government (7000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Amazon (13000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: California's 9th Congressional District encompasses most of San Joaquin County in the Central Valley, anchored by the cities of Stockton and Tracy, plus parts of Antioch in Contra Costa County. It has a population of approximately 774,000 and is rated D+4 (lean Democratic), making it one of the most competitive seats

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Voted nay_unverified on H.R. 5371 (Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026 (Ending the 42-Day Government Shutdown)) on 2025-11-12: Harder voted against ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history despite his district's heavy dependence on federal programs. An estimated 150,000 federal workers and contractors in California went without p

inferential · 2025-11-12

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026 (Ending the 42-Day Government	nay_unverified	2025-11-12	mixed
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — Budget Reconciliation (Concurrence in Senate Amendm	nay	2025-07-03	mixed
Resolution Denouncing the Antisemitic Terrorist Attack in Boulder, Colorado (inc	yea	2025-06-09	mixed
Laken Riley Act (mandatory ICE detention for undocumented immigrants accused of	yea	2025-01-07	mixed
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 ($60.8 billion aid packag	yea	2024-04-20	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: ""Quick Reminder: We should be making it harder for billionaires to cheat on their taxes, not easier," Harder tweeted on January 11, 2024. He also twee"

Vote: on "Harder's 2022 personal financial disclosure shows he owns between $15,000 and $50,000 in BVA Fund IX"

Harder publicly crusaded against wealthy tax avoidance while personally holding investments in Cayman Islands feeder funds from his Bessemer Venture Partners career. His campaign argued he had no control over the funds' location, but the optics of a

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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