[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Ashley Hinson

Republican · Representative, IA ·2

Score Components

21 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

64 → 16

Intelligence Volume 10%

50 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 74.0%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White alone, non-Hispanic: 85.9%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 791,219 (2023)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $69,384

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Amendment 1 - Citizenship Requirement to Vote / Lower Voting Age to 18 (2024) — passed, margin majority yes

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Amendment 1 - Right to Keep and Bear Arms (2022) — passed, margin 65.2% yes to 34.8% no

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.12)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.16)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (share 0.18)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: UnityPoint Health (32000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Tyson Fresh Meats (3120 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: John Deere (Deere & Company) (4650 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Iowa's 2nd Congressional District covers the northeastern part of the state, including Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Waterloo, and Grinnell. It is a mix of urban, suburban, and rural communities with a median household income of approximately $69,384 and a population that is 85.9% White. The district leans Republican (Cook

secondary

Voted yea on H.R. 2 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on 2025-05-22: Voted for sweeping legislation that extended tax cuts, imposed new Medicaid work requirements, and cut green energy tax breaks, aligning with major donor interests and drawing constituent backlash at town halls.

primary · 2025-05-22

Voted yea on H.R. 8035 (Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024) on 2024-04-20: Voted for $60.8 billion in Ukraine aid after previously voting against some Ukraine aid packages, supporting defense of an ally against Russian aggression.

primary · 2024-04-20

Voted yea on H.R. 3746 (Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023) on 2023-05-31: Voted to raise the debt ceiling after previously opposing a 2021 increase, accepting compromise to avoid default.

primary · 2023-05-31

Voted yea on H.R. 8404 (Respect for Marriage Act) on 2022-12-08: One of only 39 House Republicans to vote for codifying federal recognition of same-sex marriage, breaking from the majority of her party.

primary · 2022-12-08

Voted nay on H.Res. 789 (Censure of Rep. Paul Gosar) on 2021-11-17: Voted against censuring Gosar for posting an animated video depicting the killing of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, despite publicly condemning the video as having 'no excuse or justification.'

primary · 2021-11-17

Voted nay on H.Res. 24 (Impeachment of Donald Trump (Second)) on 2021-01-13: Voted against impeaching President Trump following the January 6 Capitol breach, reflecting party loyalty over accountability.

primary · 2021-01-13

Voted nay on H.R. 3684 (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) on 2021-11-05: Voted against the bipartisan infrastructure package that funded road, bridge, and broadband projects in rural Iowa, then later claimed credit for $829 million in lock and dam funding from the bill.

primary · 2021-11-05

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act	yea	2025-05-22	aligned
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	yea	2024-04-20	misaligned
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023	yea	2023-05-31	misaligned
Respect for Marriage Act	yea	2022-12-08	deviating
Censure of Rep. Paul Gosar	nay	2021-11-17	misaligned
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act	nay	2021-11-05	misaligned
American Rescue Plan Act of 2021	nay	2021-02-27	misaligned
Impeachment of Donald Trump (Second)	nay	2021-01-13	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Hinson voted against the $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (H.R. 3684), calling it 'socialist' and 'Washington gamesmanship at its worst.'"

Vote: on "On January 19, 2022, Hinson tweeted 'BREAKING: We secured $829 million in federal funding to upgrade"

Hinson voted against the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, calling it socialist, then two months later touted $829 million in funding from the same law as a 'game-changing' win she helped secure.

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Hinson stated: 'I strongly condemn Representative Gosar for posting a video depicting violence against another Member of Congress and the President. T"

Vote: on "Hinson voted against H.Res. 789 to censure Rep. Paul Gosar for posting the animated video depicting "

Hinson publicly stated there was 'no excuse or justification' for Gosar's behavior, yet voted against formal censure of Gosar, citing a double standard she attributed to Speaker Pelosi.

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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