[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Val T. Hoyle

Democratic · Representative, OR ·4

Score Components

21 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

10 → 3

Contradiction Risk 25%

54 → 14

Intelligence Volume 10%

52 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-Born Population: 5.58% (39,600 residents)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 32.8% (national: 33.7%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+8 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: 81.6% White (non-Hispanic), 9.4% Hispanic, remainder Asian/Black/Two or More Races

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 63.5% (national: 65.5%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 15.9% (national: 12.4%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024 ACS): 710,014

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $68,838 (national: $37,585)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Oregon Measure 118 — Corporate Tax Revenue Rebate (2024) — failed, margin 21% Yes to 79% No (statewide)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Oregon Measure 115 — Impeachment of Statewide Elected Officials (2024) — passed, margin 62.3% Yes to 37.7% No (statewide)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (share 0.05)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (incl. wood products) (share 0.1)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.16)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 - Educational Services (share 0.18)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Roseburg Forest Products (2500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: PeaceHealth (Sacred Heart Medical Center) (3500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Oregon State University (Corvallis) (4500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University of Oregon (Eugene) (5000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] District summary: Oregon's 4th Congressional District encompasses the southern half of Oregon's coastal counties — Coos, Curry, Lincoln, Lane, and Benton — plus parts of Douglas and Linn counties. Centered around Eugene (home to the University of Oregon) and Corvallis (Oregon State University), the district is 81.6% White (non-Hispani

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
FY2025 Budget Reconciliation ('One Big Beautiful Bill Act')	nay	2025-07-03	aligned
Agent Raul Gonzalez Officer Safety Act (119th Congress)	yea	2025-02-13	mixed
Fix Our Forests Act (118th → 119th Congress)	yea	2025-01-23	misaligned
Laken Riley Act (118th → 119th Congress)	yea	2025-01-07	mixed
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act of 2024	nay	2024-07-10	deviating
21st Century Peace through Strength Act (TikTok Divestiture)	nay	2024-04-20	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Hoyle is a cosponsor of House legislation to ban lawmakers and their families from buying and selling individual stocks. She told OpenSecrets: 'the Am"

Vote: on "Hoyle was weeks or months late disclosing 217 stock trades by her husband valued between $245,215 an"

Hoyle publicly champions banning congressional stock trading and demands transparency, yet she was late disclosing over 200 trades by her spouse and violated the STOCK Act twice. She transferred holdings to a mutual fund only after the violations wer

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Hoyle voted Nay on H.R. 8790, the Fix Our Forests Act, on September 24, 2024. Her 2024 GOP opponent Monique DeSpain called the vote a 'betrayal' of Or"

Vote: on "Hoyle voted Yea on H.R. 471, the Fix Our Forests Act, on January 23, 2025, calling it 'a compromise "

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Hoyle voted Nay on the Fix Our Forests Act in September 2024 (H.R. 8790, Roll Call 448) and then Yea on the same bill as re-introduced in January 2025 (H.R. 471, Roll Call 25). The bill ad

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Hoyle voted Nay on H.R. 29, the Laken Riley Act, on January 7, 2025, then—per her office's press release—explained her Yes vote by saying: 'The first "

Vote: on "Hoyle voted Nay on H.R. 29, the Laken Riley Act, on January 7, 2025, then—per her office's press rel"

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Hoyle voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act (H.R. 7511) when it first passed the House in March 2024, then voted Yea on the same bill reintroduced as H.R. 29 in January 2025 — reversing her imm

Last silence detection: Never

Federal criminal investigation into La Mota / ENDVR grant scandal

730d silent

Expected position: As a sitting member of Congress whose former state agency awarded a $554,000 grant to a donor's nonprofit and who faces a reported DOJ subpoena, Hoyle would be expected to directly

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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