GOBLIN HOUSE
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GOBLIN HOUSE
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The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:
| Component | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Silence Risk | 25% | Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent |
| Contradiction Risk | 25% | Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted) |
| Connection Density | 20% | Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups |
| Intelligence Volume | 10% | Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale) |
| Donor Influence | 10% | Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction |
| Constituency Deviation | 5% | Gap between district priorities and legislative focus |
| Voting Misalignment | 5% | Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions |
Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.
Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.
Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.
Full methodology: /congress/methodology