[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

David P. Joyce

Republican · Representative, OH ·14

Score Components

37 HIGH

Connection Density 20%

8 → 2

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

56 → 6

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid & Rural Hospitals: Joyce himself acknowledged cutting Medicaid would 'be the death of rural hospitals' in his district. Ohio has a higher-than-average rural hospital closure risk.

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+27 (LegisLetter 2026) — most Republican district in Northeast Ohio

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment Rate: 4.6% (vs. 3.5% nationally, 2026 estimate)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Age: 43 years (vs. 38.5 nationally); largest age cohort: 60–69 at 14.7%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: White (Non-Hispanic) 86.9%, Black 5.1%, Hispanic 3.47%, Two or More Races

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 28.2% (vs. 33.7% nationally)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 74.6% (vs. 65.5% nationally); median property value $199,500; median rent $962

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 8.2% (LegisLetter) / 11.9% (Data USA); National: 12.4%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $71,462 (vs. $37,585 national median per LegisLetter, which uses different methodology)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024): 785,281

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 1 (2023) — Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments (2023) — failed, margin 57.0% No — 43.0% Yes

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 2 (2023) — Legalize recreational marijuana for adults 21+ (2023) — passed, margin 57% Yes — 43% No

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 1 (2024) — Redistricting Commission Amendment; would create a citizen-led commission (2024) — failed, margin 53.4% No — 46.6% Yes

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting — nursery crops, dairy; Geauga County is a major maple syrup producer) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (Retail Trade) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (Health Care and Social Assistance) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (Manufacturing — automotive parts, chemicals, advanced materials) (share 0)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Lincoln Electric (welding equipment, adjacent to the 14th in Euclid/Cleveland) (3000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Avery Dennison (label manufacturing, Mentor) (600 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Materion Corp (advanced materials manufacturing, Mayfield Heights) (2500 employees)

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Ernst & Young pac_donor Q2 2025: $5,000 via PAC. Additional contributions across cycles.

Geo Group major_donor 2023–2024: $47,900 ($42,900 individuals + $5,000 PAC). Joyce's top career contributor. GEO Group is the second-largest p

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — $4.5 trillion reconciliation package with $880 bill	yea	2025-05-22	misaligned
FY 2025 House Budget Resolution — Framework directing $880 billion in cuts from	yea	2025-02-26	misaligned
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 — Bipartisan debt ceiling deal to avert a fede	yea	2023-05-31	deviating
Respect for Marriage Act — Federal protection for same-sex and interracial marri	yea	2022-12-08	deviating
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — Medicare drug price negotiation, $35/month ins	nay	2022-08-12	misaligned
CHIPS and Science Act — $280 billion for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, i	yea	2022-07-28	deviating
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act — $1.2 trillion for roads, bridges, broad	nay	2021-11-05	misaligned
Bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack	yea	2021-05-19	deviating
Impeachment of Donald Trump — Incitement of insurrection following the January 6	nay	2021-01-13	deviating
American Health Care Act of 2017 — Partial ACA repeal; CBO projected 23 million	nay	2017-05-04	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "In a March 26, 2025 telephone town hall, Joyce told constituents he 'would not approve' Medicaid cuts, acknowledged cutting Medicaid would 'be the dea"

Vote: on "On May 22, 2025, Joyce voted for H.Con.Res.14 / H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the AF"

Joyce publicly told constituents he 'would not approve' Medicaid cuts and admitted they would 'be the death of rural hospitals,' then voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act which independent analyses confirm makes deep cuts to Medicaid — the progra

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Joyce voted against the $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act on November 5, 2021, alongside 200 House Republicans."

Vote: on "Despite voting against the infrastructure bill, Joyce subsequently celebrated the allocation of $35 "

Joyce voted against the bipartisan infrastructure law, then lobbied and celebrated $85 million in CDFI tax credit allocations for Cleveland — funding that relied on the very federal appropriations and infrastructure framework he opposed.

platform_vs_vote 60/100

Platform: "Joyce co-chairs the Congressional Cannabis Caucus and has introduced bipartisan legislation to legalize cannabis (the STATES 2.0 Act), remove cannabis"

Vote: on "In April 2022, Joyce voted against the MORE Act, which would have federally decriminalized cannabis."

As GOP Co-Chair of the Congressional Cannabis Caucus who introduced pro-legalization legislation, Joyce voted against the MORE Act to federally decriminalize cannabis — a vote even Democratic caucus leaders dismissed as 'no reason for alarm,' but whi

reversal 60/100

Platform: "Joyce voted against the American Health Care Act (AHCA) on May 4, 2017, citing that the AHCA did not do enough 'to bring down the cost of healthcare d"

Vote: on "Prior to voting against the AHCA, Joyce had cast at least 31 votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act"

Joyce voted against the AHCA in 2017 and presented himself as a moderate on healthcare, but had previously voted 31 times to fully repeal the ACA when those votes carried no political risk. The DCCC called his post-AHCA ad campaign a 'misleading ad r

Last silence detection: Never

Persistent avoidance of in-person town halls — no open town hall held over a 13-year congressional career, relying on brief telephone town halls that last approximately 30 minutes with a handful of pre-screened questions.

4476d silent

Expected position: As the representative for 785,281 constituents in northeast Ohio, Joyce would be expected to hold open, in-person town halls where constituents can engage in unscripted dialogue — e

Silence on whether voting for Social Security and Medicare cuts would affect his district's 60-69 year-old demographic — the largest age cohort at 14.7%.

99d silent

Expected position: As a congressman who told constituents on a telephone town hall that he would not approve Medicaid cuts and acknowledged cutting Medicaid would 'be the death of rural hospitals,' Jo

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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