[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Mike Kelly

Republican · Representative, PA ·16

Score Components

33 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

10 → 3

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

56 → 6

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Non-English language at home: 5.02% of households

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Drives alone to work: 75.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 5.1%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 42.9

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-born population: 2.8% (21.3k)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: U.S. citizenship rate: 98.8%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 88.3% (668k)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 762,592 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median rent: $896

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median home value: $188,200

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 30.0%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 72.7%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 12.4% (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $67,764 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Pennsylvania statewide — Mail-in ballot 'notice and cure' policies (2024 election) (2024) — implemented, margin helped over 9,000 Pennsylvanians have their votes counted

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.115)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.148)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.172)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Mike Kelly Automotive Group (Butler and Uniontown) (200 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Cleveland-Cliffs Butler Works (formerly AK Steel) (1500 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (Farm Bill) — On Passage	yea	2026-04-30	mixed
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026 — Ending the 76-Day DHS	yea	2026-04-30	mixed
Rescissions Act of 2025 — On Passage	yea	2025-07-18	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — On Motion to Concur in Senate Amendment and Final P	yea	2025-07-03	misaligned
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act — On Passage	yea	2025-04-10	mixed
Laken Riley Act — On Passage	yea	2025-01-22	mixed
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 ($60.8 billion)	yea	2024-04-20	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "In a May 5, 2025 constituent newsletter, Kelly wrote about the 'need to reduce deficit spending' and praised steps by the Trump administration to cut "

Vote: on "On May 22, 2025, Kelly voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, Roll Call 190) on first "

Kelly built a 15-year brand as a Tea Party fiscal hawk who 'sees budgets in uncompromising terms' and maintained a national-debt clock on his website. He then voted for the OBBB, which the CBO found would add $3-4 trillion to the deficit — the very o

reversal 90/100

Platform: "Kelly filed lawsuits following the 2020 presidential election to have Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots thrown out and the state law allowing no-excuse m"

Vote: on "Kelly's chief of staff Matt Stroia was among those receiving emails about the false elector scheme i"

Kelly personally filed lawsuits to overturn Pennsylvania's 2020 election results and voted not to certify the state's electors. When his own chief of staff was implicated in the false elector scheme — with video evidence of his aides accepting fake e

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Kelly publicly opposed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 as 'loaded with bad policy and wasteful spending,' citing its $357 billion in climate provi"

Vote: on "In 2024, Kelly's family car dealership (Mike Kelly Automotive Group) in Uniontown, PA accepted a $31"

Kelly voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, calling its climate spending 'wasteful' and criticizing EV and solar subsidies. His own family car dealership then accepted a $315,000 solar panel grant funded by the same bill, projected to save his b

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "On April 27, 2025, Kelly published an op-ed in the Erie Times-News praising DOGE and Trump tariffs, calling the $36 trillion national debt 'the truth'"

Vote: on "Since 2011, Kelly cultivated a reputation as a fiscal conservative. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette prof"

Kelly praised DOGE's projected $155 billion in savings and called the $36 trillion national debt America's existential threat — yet voted for the OBBB that independent analysts found would add $3-4 trillion to that same debt. The Butler Eagle publish

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "In August 2022, Kelly tweeted: 'Asking plumbers and carpenters to pay off the loans of Wall Street advisors and lawyers isn't just unfair. It's also b"

Vote: on "Kelly's Mike Kelly Automotive Group received $987,237 in forgivable PPP loans during the COVID-19 pa"

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Kelly publicly opposed student loan forgiveness as 'unfair' to working people while his own business received $987,237 in forgiven PPP loans. The White House publicly called him out for th

Last silence detection: Never

In-person town halls and direct constituent accessibility in PA-16

5184d silent

Expected position: As the representative of a district spanning Erie to Butler counties with a 12.4% poverty rate, Kelly would be expected to hold in-person town halls to engage constituents on health

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

View Full Entity Profile →