[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS
Legislative Integrity Monitor
Goblin House Intelligence
Congress → Officials → Mike Kelly

Mike Kelly

Republican · Representative, PA ·16

Mike Kelly is the Republican U.S. Representative (PA's 16th congressional district). The platform has 7 voting records on file (2024-2026) and 58 verified facts on file covering this member's voting positions, financial disclosures, and stated platform commitments.

Score Components
81 HIGH
Connection Density 20%
78 → 16
Donor Influence 15%
70 → 11
Silence Risk 25%
69 → 17
Contradiction Risk 25%
98 → 25
Intelligence Volume 15%
76 → 11
Constituency Deviation 0%
10 → 0
Voting Misalignment 0%
0 → 0
% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Non-English language at home: 5.02% of households
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Drives alone to work: 75.6%
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 5.1%
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 42.9
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-born population: 2.8% (21.3k)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: U.S. citizenship rate: 98.8%
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 88.3% (668k)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 762,592 (2024)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median rent: $896
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median home value: $188,200
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 30.0%
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 72.7%
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 12.4% (2024)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $67,764 (2024)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Pennsylvania statewide — Mail-in ballot 'notice and cure' policies (2024 election) (2024) — implemented, margin helped over 9,000 Pennsylvanians have their votes counted
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.115)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.148)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.172)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Mike Kelly Automotive Group (Butler and Uniontown) (200 employees)
secondary ✓ Verified
[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Cleveland-Cliffs Butler Works (formerly AK Steel) (1500 employees)
secondary ✓ Verified
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policy_support Kelly voted to mandate ICE detention for undocumented immigrants charged with theft-related crimes (Laken Riley Act) and voted to fund DHS/ICE operations.
Quiver Quantitative financial_disclosure Estimated Kelly's net worth at $16.2 million as of April 30, 2026 — the 79th highest in Congress.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) policy_support Kelly published an op-ed in April 2025 praising DOGE and Trump tariffs.
Securities and Exchange Commission regulatory_filing Kelly filed an SEC filing on 2010-04-30.
House Committee on Ethics investigation Investigated Kelly for his wife's Cleveland-Cliffs stock purchase; found he violated the House Code of Conduct and showed 'lack of candor' (July 2025).
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) vote Kelly voted Yea on this bill twice (May 22, 2025 and July 3, 2025), which CBO estimated would add $3-4 trillion to the deficit — contradicting his fiscal hawk…
Ron Johnson public_interaction Sen. Johnson stated publicly that false elector documents came from Kelly's office; Kelly's spokesman called those claims 'patently false.'
Donald Trump affiliation Kelly filed lawsuits to overturn Pennsylvania's 2020 election results, voted against certifying Pennsylvania's electoral votes on Jan 6, 2021, and has ties to…
Glenn Thompson colleague Both represent Pennsylvania districts in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Western Alliance Bancorporation Political Action Committee (Wabpac) donor $5,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00817585/
American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC donor $10,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00797670/
Allison Transmission Inc. PAC donor $10,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00691972/
Performance Contacting Group Employee Owners PAC donor $7,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00659060/
Bringing America Together PAC donor $5,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00647354/
American Revival PAC donor $5,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00639229/
Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC) donor $5,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00592089/
Ryan LLC PAC (Ryanpac) donor $5,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00574921/
Building America'S Republican Representation PAC donor $5,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00572271/
Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC donor $10,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00563726/
Toyota Motor North America, Inc PAC (Toyota/Lexus PAC) donor $7,000 to Mike Kelly's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (7 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00542365/
BillVoteDateAlignment
PROOF Act Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
An Act to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow early childhood… Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
Ratepayer Protection Act Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United… Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
National Fraud Enforcement Division Act Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
Water Resources Development Act Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
Retire through Ownership Act Yea 2026-09-16 unknown
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United… Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Diesel Emissions Reduction Act Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Tax Relief for Fraud Victims Act Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
GUARD Act Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes… Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills H.R. 9576 and H.R. 10326, providing… Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers… Nay 2026-09-15 unknown
Fostering the Use of Technology to Uphold Regulatory Effectiveness in… Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills H.R. 9576 and H.R. 10326, providing… Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
Whistleblower Protection Act Yea 2026-09-15 unknown
National Wildlife Refuge System Invasive Species Strike Team Act Yea 2026-09-14 unknown
Local Communities & Bird Habitat Stewardship Act Yea 2026-09-14 unknown
Protect Economic and Academic Freedom Act Yea 2026-09-03 unknown
Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to require… Yea 2026-09-02 unknown
Protecting Domestic Mining Act Yea 2026-09-02 unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills (H.R. 1501, H.R. 9436, and H.R… Yea 2026-09-01 unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills (H.R. 1501, H.R. 9436, and H.R… Yea 2026-09-01 unknown
To amend the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 to extend the time period… Yea 2026-09-01 unknown
To amend the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 to extend the time period… Nay 2026-09-01 unknown
Providing for the condemnation and denouncement of socialism in all its forms… Yea 2026-09-01 unknown
AGOA Extension Act Yea 2026-09-01 unknown
In the matter of allegations relating to Representative Chuck Edwards Yea 2026-09-01 unknown
Local Access to Courts Act Yea 2026-08-31 unknown
Last contradiction analysis: Never
platform_vs_vote 90/100
Platform: "In a May 5, 2025 constituent newsletter, Kelly wrote about the 'need to reduce deficit spending' and praised steps by the Trump administration to cut spending. He previously had a 'national debt clock' on his…
[ Show full platform position ]
In a May 5, 2025 constituent newsletter, Kelly wrote about the 'need to reduce deficit spending' and praised steps by the Trump administration to cut spending. He previously had a 'national debt clock' on his congressional website purporting to show the nation's growing debt. In 2019, he said: 'You should not spend money you don't have without a way to pay back the loan.' He swept into office in 2011 as a Tea Party fiscal hawk.
"
Vote: on "On May 22, 2025, Kelly voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, Roll Call 190) on…"
Kelly built a 15-year brand as a Tea Party fiscal hawk who 'sees budgets in uncompromising terms' and maintained a national-debt clock on his website. He then voted for the OBBB, which the CBO found would add $3-4 trillion to the deficit — the very outcome his entire political identity was constructed to oppose…
[ Show full analysis ]
Kelly built a 15-year brand as a Tea Party fiscal hawk who 'sees budgets in uncompromising terms' and maintained a national-debt clock on his website. He then voted for the OBBB, which the CBO found would add $3-4 trillion to the deficit — the very outcome his entire political identity was constructed to oppose. Letters to the editor in his district called him a 'fake fiscal conservative' and noted the GOP had 'given up any pretense of caring about deficits.'
reversal 90/100
Platform: "Kelly filed lawsuits following the 2020 presidential election to have Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots thrown out and the state law allowing no-excuse mail-in voting declared unconstitutional. He voted against certifying…
[ Show full platform position ]
Kelly filed lawsuits following the 2020 presidential election to have Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots thrown out and the state law allowing no-excuse mail-in voting declared unconstitutional. He voted against certifying Pennsylvania's electoral votes on January 6, 2021.
"
Vote: on "Kelly's chief of staff Matt Stroia was among those receiving emails about the false elector scheme…"
Kelly personally filed lawsuits to overturn Pennsylvania's 2020 election results and voted not to certify the state's electors. When his own chief of staff was implicated in the false elector scheme — with video evidence of his aides accepting fake elector documents — Kelly's spokesman initially called the claims…
[ Show full analysis ]
Kelly personally filed lawsuits to overturn Pennsylvania's 2020 election results and voted not to certify the state's electors. When his own chief of staff was implicated in the false elector scheme — with video evidence of his aides accepting fake elector documents — Kelly's spokesman initially called the claims 'patently false.' His office later confirmed staff involvement but Kelly said he was unaware.
statement_vs_disclosure 90/100
Platform: "Kelly publicly opposed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 as 'loaded with bad policy and wasteful spending,' citing its $357 billion in climate provisions. He specifically criticized EV tax credits and solar subsidies."
Vote: on "In 2024, Kelly's family car dealership (Mike Kelly Automotive Group) in Uniontown, PA accepted a…"
Kelly voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, calling its climate spending 'wasteful' and criticizing EV and solar subsidies. His own family car dealership then accepted a $315,000 solar panel grant funded by the same bill, projected to save his business $27,300 annually. Kelly's spokesman claimed he had no active…
[ Show full analysis ]
Kelly voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, calling its climate spending 'wasteful' and criticizing EV and solar subsidies. His own family car dealership then accepted a $315,000 solar panel grant funded by the same bill, projected to save his business $27,300 annually. Kelly's spokesman claimed he had no active role in the business — a firewall that did not prevent the appearance of self-dealing.
platform_vs_vote 90/100
Platform: "On April 27, 2025, Kelly published an op-ed in the Erie Times-News praising DOGE and Trump tariffs, calling the $36 trillion national debt 'the truth' Americans 'can't handle' and celebrating $155 billion in projected…
[ Show full platform position ]
On April 27, 2025, Kelly published an op-ed in the Erie Times-News praising DOGE and Trump tariffs, calling the $36 trillion national debt 'the truth' Americans 'can't handle' and celebrating $155 billion in projected savings.
"
Vote: on "Since 2011, Kelly cultivated a reputation as a fiscal conservative. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette…"
Kelly praised DOGE's projected $155 billion in savings and called the $36 trillion national debt America's existential threat — yet voted for the OBBB that independent analysts found would add $3-4 trillion to that same debt. The Butler Eagle published a constituent letter noting Kelly claimed $155 billion in…
[ Show full analysis ]
Kelly praised DOGE's projected $155 billion in savings and called the $36 trillion national debt America's existential threat — yet voted for the OBBB that independent analysts found would add $3-4 trillion to that same debt. The Butler Eagle published a constituent letter noting Kelly claimed $155 billion in 'savings' that were 'not savings already realized as he would like you to believe.' The contradiction is between his public-facing fiscal rhetoric and his legislative votes, which consistently expanded deficits.
same_source_inconsistency 30/100
Platform: "In August 2022, Kelly tweeted: 'Asking plumbers and carpenters to pay off the loans of Wall Street advisors and lawyers isn't just unfair. It's also bad policy,' criticizing Biden's student loan forgiveness plan."
Vote: on "Kelly's Mike Kelly Automotive Group received $987,237 in forgivable PPP loans during the COVID-19…"
[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Kelly publicly opposed student loan forgiveness as 'unfair' to working people while his own business received $987,237 in forgiven PPP loans. The White House publicly called him out for the hypocrisy, and the Ellwood City Ledger documented both the PPP…
[ Show full analysis ]
[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Kelly publicly opposed student loan forgiveness as 'unfair' to working people while his own business received $987,237 in forgiven PPP loans. The White House publicly called him out for the hypocrisy, and the Ellwood City Ledger documented both the PPP forgiveness and his anti-student-debt-relief tweets as a direct contradiction.
Last silence detection: Sat, 10 Oct 2026 00:41:03 GMT (via scheduled run)
In-person town halls and direct constituent accessibility in PA-16
5184d silent
Expected position: As the representative of a district spanning Erie to Butler counties with a 12.4% poverty rate, Kelly would be expected to hold in-person town halls to engage constituents on healthcare access, Medicare/Medicaid cuts in the OBBB…
[ Show full donor-interest summary ]
Expected position: As the representative of a district spanning Erie to Butler counties with a 12.4% poverty rate, Kelly would be expected to hold in-person town halls to engage constituents on healthcare access, Medicare/Medicaid cuts in the OBBB, DOGE-related federal job losses, and the Ethics Committee's rebuke over his wife's stock trades. Evidence of activity on adjacent topics: Kelly has not held an in-person, open-floor town hall in Erie County since at least 2011 — a period spanning his entire congressional tenure. His last in-person town hall of any kind was in 2015 at Blasco Library on veterans' issues. Kelly's district director claimed tele-town halls offer a 'higher return on investment.' But questions are prescreened: callers press a button to connect to staff who vet questions before allowing them to be asked. On March 8, 2025, roughly 300 protesters gathered in Erie's Perry Square organized by French Creek Indivisible and Erie Benedictines for Peace. Chris Magoc, a retired Mercyhurst professor, said: 'You can't phone this job in. Tele-town halls won't do.' During this period, Kelly was actively publishing op-eds, issuing press releases on DOGE and tariffs, and appearing in media — demonstrating public availability on controlled platforms while avoiding in-person constituent confrontation. Primary URL: https://www.goerie.com/story/news/local/2025/03/12/representative-mike-kelly-no-erie-town-halls-in-years/82269368007/
other / unclassified
National Confectioners Association Of The United States, Inc. Political Action Committee (, Federation Of Exchange Accomodators 1031 PAC, American Revival PAC, American Society Of Association Executives (Asae) PAC, Insured Retirement Institute PAC (Iri PAC)…
[ Show full donor-interest summary ]
National Confectioners Association Of The United States, Inc. Political Action Committee (, Federation Of Exchange Accomodators 1031 PAC, American Revival PAC, American Society Of Association Executives (Asae) PAC, Insured Retirement Institute PAC (Iri PAC) (amounts: $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $10,000 (2026), $7,000 (2024)) — interest area: other / unclassified
other candidates' committees
Pha PAC/Physician-Led Healthcare For America PAC, Huck PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2024)) — interest area: other candidates' committees
party committees
Funding Developing Leadership PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024)) — interest area: party committees
colleagues' leadership pacs
Building America'S Republican Representation PAC, Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC), Bringing America Together PAC, Upper Hand Fund, Ann PAC, Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $5,000…
[ Show full donor-interest summary ]
Building America'S Republican Representation PAC, Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC), Bringing America Together PAC, Upper Hand Fund, Ann PAC, Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2024), $7,500 (2024), $5,000 (2026)) — interest area: colleagues' leadership pacs
corporate pacs, industry unlisted
Sammons Enterprises Inc. Political Action Committee, The Grant Thornton LLP Political Action Committee LLC, Amsted Industries Incorporated PAC (Amsted PAC), Performance Contacting Group Employee Owners PAC, Genesee & Wyoming Inc. PAC, Mmc Corp PAC, Iron…
[ Show full donor-interest summary ]
Sammons Enterprises Inc. Political Action Committee, The Grant Thornton LLP Political Action Committee LLC, Amsted Industries Incorporated PAC (Amsted PAC), Performance Contacting Group Employee Owners PAC, Genesee & Wyoming Inc. PAC, Mmc Corp PAC, Iron Mountain Incorporated Employees PAC (Impac) (amounts: $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $7,000 (2026), $7,025 (2026), $6,000 (2026), $5,000 (2024)) — interest area: corporate pacs, industry unlisted
Wine And Spirits Wholesalers Of America, Inc. PAC Alcohol & tobacco $6,500 (2024)
National Beer Wholesalers Association PAC (Nbwa PAC) Alcohol & tobacco $5,000 (2026)
Western Alliance Bancorporation Political Action Committee (Wabpac) Finance & banking $5,000 (2026)
American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC Law & lobbying firms $10,000 (2026)
Allison Transmission Inc. PAC Transportation & auto $10,000 (2024)
Performance Contacting Group Employee Owners PAC Corporate PACs, industry unlisted $7,000 (2026)
Bringing America Together PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2024)
American Revival PAC Other / unclassified $5,000 (2026)
Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC) Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2026)
Ryan LLC PAC (Ryanpac) Finance & banking $5,000 (2026)
Building America'S Republican Representation PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2024)
Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2026)
Toyota Motor North America, Inc PAC (Toyota/Lexus PAC) Transportation & auto $7,000 (2024)
Ann PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $7,500 (2024)
Iron Mountain Incorporated Employees PAC (Impac) Corporate PACs, industry unlisted $5,000 (2024)
TopicPriorityAlignmentDeviation
Agriculture and Farm Policy 88 55 30
Social Security and Retirement Security 85 75 12
Environmental Conservation and Public Lands 65 78 12
Foreign Policy and Military Intervention 60 80 10
Manufacturing and Industrial Policy 92 85 10
Border Security and Immigration Enforcement 78 88 8
Tax Policy and Economic Relief 82 85 8
Infrastructure and Water Resources 76 88 6
Energy and Environmental Regulation 80 90 5
Government Accountability and Fraud Prevention 70 90 5
Judicial Reform and Court Structure 55 90 5
No platform commitments archived
No committee memberships recorded
Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

ComponentWeightSignal
Contradiction Risk30%Stated positions contradicted by the record (recent findings boosted)
Donor Influence20%Distinct documented donors (FEC Schedule A PACs); inferred donors do not count
Connection Density20%Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups; donor links excluded
Silence Risk15%Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Intelligence Volume15%Documented facts from verified sources
Constituency Deviation0%Shown, not weighted — a model estimate, not a record
Voting Misalignment0%Shown, not weighted — needs platform commitments almost nobody has; the roll-call record on /votes is the vote signal

Each component is the member's standing among all scored members of Congress, and the weighted sum is the overall score. Tiers are ranks: Critical is the top 5%, High the next 10%, Elevated the next 20%, Moderate the next 30%, and Low the rest.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

[PUBLIC COST ESTIMATE]
Documented financial relationships span 0 money flow chains, while 2 elected officials hold documented connections.
$8.1BDonor Contributions
0Money Chains
0Traced Hops
Connected Officials
Calculation Methodology

Contract values are summed from documented money flow chains where this entity appears as a source or destination node. Amounts are drawn from USASpending.gov, FEC filings, SEC EDGAR, or LD-2 lobbying registrations.

Donor contributions aggregate documented amounts from the donor_interests table, sourced from FEC individual and PAC contribution filings.

Connected officials are elected officials in our database with a mapped relationship (lobbying, board membership, campaign contribution, etc.) to this entity.

Annualised flow represents the total documented dollar amount traced through money flow hops involving this entity. Where hop-level amounts are unavailable, the chain-level documented total is used as a conservative upper bound.

All figures are drawn from public filings. Estimates are conservative — undisclosed transactions, dark money, and vanish-point hops are excluded from totals. This is a minimum documented floor, not a ceiling.

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