[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Mark Kelly

Democratic · Senator, AZ

Score Components

33 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

10 → 3

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

56 → 6

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 39.0

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Average commute time: 25.4 minutes

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: U.S. citizenship rate: 93.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-born population: 12.9% (955k)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 31.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 52.6% (3.88M)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 7.38 million (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median property value: $394,500

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 30.2%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 67.4%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 12.5% (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $79,964 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Arizona Proposition 211 — Campaign Finance Transparency (Voters' Right to Know Act) (2022) — passed, margin approved by voters

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Arizona Proposition 139 — Right to Abortion (state constitutional amendment) (2024) — passed, margin 62% to 38%

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (including semiconductor and defense) (share 0.08)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 - Accommodation and Food Services (share 0.1)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.12)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.14)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Freeport-McMoRan (Copper and Gold Mining) (10800 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Raytheon (Missiles and Defense Systems) (12500 employees)

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No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations — Motion to Invoke Cloture (Janua	nay	2026-01-29	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — On Motion to Concur in the Senate Amendment	nay	2025-07-01	mixed
GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Regulation) — Cloture Vote	yea	2025-06-12	mixed
Senate 2025 Budget Resolution (Reconciliation)	nay	2025-02-21	mixed
Confirmation of Marco Rubio (Secretary of State), John Ratcliffe (CIA), Scott Be	yea	2025-02-04	deviating
Laken Riley Act — On Passage	yea	2025-01-20	deviating
Border Wall Funding Amendments (3 votes in 2021)	nay	2021-08-04	misaligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

reversal 90/100

Platform: "Kelly voted three times in 2021 to defund border wall construction: on February 5, May 20, and August 4, voting against amendments to prohibit canceli"

Vote: on "During his 2022 reelection campaign, Kelly pushed the Biden administration to close 'gaps' in the bo"

Kelly voted three times in 2021 to defund border wall construction, then in 2022 campaigned on asking the Biden administration to close 'gaps' in the very same border wall in Yuma. A Tucson editorial captured the contradiction: 'Mark Kelly holds two

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "Kelly voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) on January 20, 2025, one of 12 Senate Democrats joining Republicans to mandate ICE detention of undocume"

Vote: on "On January 25, 2026, Kelly declared he would vote against DHS funding following fatal ICE/Border Pat"

Kelly voted to expand ICE detention authority (Laken Riley Act, Jan 2025), then one year later declared he would vote against DHS's entire budget after ICE/Border Patrol shootings in Minneapolis. Kelly argued the two positions were consistent — he su

platform_vs_vote 60/100

Platform: "Kelly took a 'no corporate PAC money' pledge upon launching his Senate campaign in February 2019 and released a video about it, saying he would 'fight"

Vote: on "The Intercept reported in March 2019 that Kelly had given 'at least 19 paid corporate speeches' incl"

Kelly pledged to reject 'a dime of corporate PAC money' in 2019, yet gave paid speeches to Goldman Sachs and other corporate clients, attended a fundraiser hosted by a DC lobbying firm, and accepted hundreds of thousands from corporate CEOs and lobby

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "During the 2020 campaign, Kelly criticized Trump border policies and voted against border wall funding. By 2022, he campaigned as a border security ad"

Vote: on "During his 2022 reelection campaign, Kelly pushed the Biden administration to close 'gaps' in the bo"

Kelly's career arc from border-wall defunder (2021) to border-security campaigner (2022) to Laken Riley supporter and 70% GOP-alignment senator (2025) represents a sustained rightward pivot on immigration enforcement. Phoenix New Times documented how

statement_vs_disclosure 30/100

Platform: "On April 1, 2026, Kelly cheered the launch of Artemis II, praising American technology and space exploration: 'Artemis II is proof that only in the Un"

Vote: on "On July 1, 2025, Kelly voted Nay on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1), citing its $930 billion"

Kelly cheered the Artemis II launch as proof of American exceptionalism after voting against the OBBB that funded it with $9.9 billion. AZCIR fact-checked this as a 'mischaracterization' — Kelly supported NASA funding in negotiations but opposed the

Last silence detection: Never

Escalating border crisis in Arizona (FY 2021-2023) while Kelly voted to defund border wall construction

515d silent

Expected position: As Arizona's senator representing a border state with 370 miles of U.S.-Mexico frontier, Kelly would be expected to actively address the record 1.7 million illegal border crossings

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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