[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Trent Kelly

Republican · Representative, MS ·1

Score Components

15 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

18 → 5

Intelligence Volume 10%

51 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign‑Born Population: 2.56% (19,100 residents); 98.5% U.S.‑citizen

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 24.5% (national avg. 33.7%); 13.2% lack high‑school diploma

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+18 to R+20 (2024); Trump won by 27 points in 2020

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: 64.2% White, 27.9% Black, 3.98% Hispanic, remainder Asian/Two or More Races/Native American

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 73.4% (national avg. 65.5%); median home value $187,800

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 11.8% (LegisLetter); 15.5% (DataUSA 2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024 ACS): 746,893

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $62,385 (below national $78,538; above state threshold)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Mississippi Ballot Initiative Restoration (2024 legislative action — voters did NOT have a direct ballot measure in 2024 due to ongoing litigation over the ballot initiative process) (2024) — failed, margin Legislature did not restore full ballot initiative rights; House passed a restrictive proposal preventing abortio

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Mississippi Initiative 65 — Medical Marijuana (2020, implemented 2021‑2022) (2020) — passed, margin 74% Yes to 26% No (statewide)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 - Educational Services (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (share 0.07)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.13)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.16)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.18)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Columbus Air Force Base (2500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University of Mississippi (Oxford) (4000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Toyota Motor Manufacturing Mississippi (Blue Springs) (2000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: North Mississippi Health Services (Tupelo) (7200 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] District summary: Mississippi's 1st Congressional District encompasses the northeast corner of the state — all or part of 22 counties — including Tupelo, Oxford (home to the University of Mississippi), Southaven (a Memphis suburb), Columbus, and Corinth. The Cook PVI is approximately R+18 to R+20, making it a solidly Republican distri

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (FY2025 Budget Reconciliation)	yea	2025-07-03	mixed
Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act (ICC Sanctions)	yea	2025-01-09	deviating
Laken Riley Act	yea	2025-01-07	aligned
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act of 2024	yea	2024-07-10	mixed
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling Suspension)	yea	2023-05-31	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: ""The President’s student loan forgiveness, helping out his rich buddies, and all those who went to these Ivy League schools, while our hard‑working cl"

Vote: on "Kelly signed a bipartisan Mississippi delegation letter (May 11, 2020) to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin"

Kelly publicly called student‑loan forgiveness 'tone deaf,' yet he explicitly advocated for streamlined PPP loan forgiveness — a government debt‑relief program that forgave billions in business loans. Both are federal debt‑forgiveness mechanisms enac

Last silence detection: Never

In‑person constituent town halls in Mississippi (2025)

364d silent

Expected position: As the representative for 746,893 constituents and facing significant criticism over votes on the FY2025 budget reconciliation bill that cuts Medicaid/SNAP, Kelly would be expected

Rationale for objecting to 2020 Electoral College certification after Capitol breach

25d silent

Expected position: Having voted to object to Arizona's and Pennsylvania's electoral votes on January 6‑7, 2021 — after the violent breach of the Capitol — Kelly would be expected to publicly explain h

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

View Full Entity Profile →