[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Kevin Kiley

Independent · Representative, CA ·3

Score Components

33 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

30 → 8

Contradiction Risk 25%

82 → 21

Intelligence Volume 10%

50 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid Dependency Rate: 25%+ (estimated)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 42.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 8.7%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $85,340

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: California Proposition 35 (Medi-Cal funding) (2024) — passed, margin 71.3% yes

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: California Proposition 2 (School bonds) (2024) — passed, margin 58.2% yes

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: California Proposition 36 (Criminal sentencing enhancements) (2024) — passed, margin 68.5% yes

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Accommodation and Food Services (share 0.08)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Retail Trade (share 0.11)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Construction (share 0.1)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (share 0.12)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS Healthcare and Social Assistance (share 0.16)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Raley's Supermarkets (2800 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Blue Shield of California (3200 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: County of Placer (4500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Sutter Health (12000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Kaiser Permanente (15000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: California's 3rd Congressional District (Kiley's previous district before 2026 switch) encompasses the northern Sierra Nevada and northeastern Sacramento suburbs including Placer, El Dorado, Nevada, and Sacramento counties. The district has approximately 778,710 residents with median household income around $85,000 a

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Voted yea on DHS Funding Bill (Department of Homeland Security appropriations FY2026) on 2025-04-27: Voted to fund DHS while running for district affected by immigration policy; aligns with Republican donor interests while district has mixed views on immigration enforcement

primary · 2025-04-27

Voted yea on H.R. 26 (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extension) on 2025-01-01: Voted for extension adding to deficit while simultaneously citing fiscal responsibility as campaign platform; wealthy donor tax cuts funded by cutting social services voters depend on

primary · 2025-01-01

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act - sweeping spending cuts package	yea	2025-05-01	aligned
Department of Homeland Security appropriations FY2026	yea	2025-04-27	aligned
Medicaid cuts in reconciliation budget package	yea	2025-04-01	misaligned
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extension	yea	2025-01-01	mixed

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Kiley called for congressional stock trading ban: 'We need to pass a bill that would ban stock trading by members of Congress' during House floor rema"

Vote: on "Kiley served nine years as California Republican in Assembly and Congress before switching, consiste"

Publicly called for banning congressional stock trading while continuing to trade stocks himself through personal accounts tracked by Quiver Quantitative; no blind trust established to eliminate conflicts during his committee service on Judiciary and

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "Kiley stated in March 2026: 'This reflects the way I've approached the job from the beginning of my tenure' - describing his switch to Independent as "

Vote: on "Kiley served nine years as California Republican in Assembly and Congress before switching, consiste"

Claims his Independent switch reflects consistent bipartisan approach despite nine years voting and serving as Republican with no prior Independent positioning; the switch coincides with unfavorable district redistricting rather than principle

platform_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "After switching to Independent, Kiley stated he will continue to caucus with Republicans for 'administrative purposes' and committee assignments"

Vote: on "Kiley served nine years as California Republican in Assembly and Congress before switching, consiste"

Claims Independent status to appeal to nonpartisan voters while maintaining Republican caucus arrangement that functionally gives Republicans his vote on all procedural matters; 'independent' positioning appears strategic rather than structural

Last silence detection: Never

Stock trading ban advocacy follow-through

433d silent

Expected position: As Kiley publicly called for congressional stock trading ban on House floor, he should disclose his own trading activity and whether he has placed holdings in blind trust Evidence

Trump administration policy positions

414d silent

Expected position: As self-described independent who claims to evaluate bills on merits, Kiley should have public positions on Trump administration executive orders, DOGE cuts, and immigration policie

Medicaid cuts in reconciliation budget

374d silent

Expected position: As representative of district where over 25% of residents rely on Medicaid, Kiley should address how his votes for reconciliation budget affecting healthcare align with constituent

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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