[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Michael Lawler

Republican · Representative, NY ·17

Score Components

31 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

57 → 6

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Non-English language at home: 32.9% of households

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Average commute time: 34.1 minutes

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid coverage rate: 19.9%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Uninsured rate: 3.91%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 46.5%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: U.S. citizenship rate: 92.3%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-born population: 19.2% (150k)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 20.9% (163k)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 63.1% (491k)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 777,627 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median property value: $590,800

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 74.3%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 10.7% (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $125,890 (2024)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: New York Environmental Bond Act (2022) (2022) — passed, margin 67.6% to 32.4%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: New York Proposal 1 — Equal Rights Amendment (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 62% to 38%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 52 - Finance and Insurance (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.1)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 54 - Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.16)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (Farm Bill) — On Passage	yea	2026-04-30	mixed
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026	yea	2026-04-30	mixed
Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026 — Ending the 43-Day Governmen	yea	2025-11-12	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — On Motion to Concur in the Senate Amendment	yea	2025-07-03	mixed
No Rogue Rulings Act (NORRA) — Limiting Nationwide Injunctions by Federal Distri	yea	2025-04-11	aligned
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act — On Passage	yea	2025-04-10	aligned
Laken Riley Act — On Passage	yea	2025-01-07	aligned
$95 Billion Foreign Aid Package — Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and TikTok Ban	yea	2024-04-20	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

reversal 90/100

Platform: "On May 8, 2025, Lawler joined three other NY Republicans in a joint statement rejecting the House Ways and Means Committee's proposed $30,000 SALT cap"

Vote: on "On May 22, 2025, Lawler voted Yea on the OBBB after securing a deal raising the SALT cap to $40,000 "

Lawler and three other NY Republicans publicly rejected the $30,000 SALT cap as 'insulting' and demanded $100,000/$200,000. He ultimately voted for the bill with a $40,000 cap — less than half what he said was acceptable. While he secured a partial c

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Lawler brands himself as 'one of the most bipartisan members of Congress' and was rated the 'most effective freshman lawmaker.' He campaigned as a mod"

Vote: on "A September 2025 legislative scorecard showed Lawler voted with Trump 100% of the time in 2025. Vote"

Lawler brands himself as a bipartisan moderate but a September 2025 scorecard found he voted with Trump 100% of the time, and VoteView showed his partisan voting rose from 81% to 92%. The American Journal News reported: 'Mike Lawler supported Preside

platform_vs_vote 60/100

Platform: "On June 19, 2025, Lawler was one of 14 GOP lawmakers who signed a letter voicing 'major concerns' about the OBBB's rollback of clean energy tax credit"

Vote: on "On July 3, 2025, Lawler voted Yea on the final OBBB conference report, which did not restore the cle"

Lawler signed a letter voicing 'major concerns' about the OBBB's clean energy rollback and urged the Senate to preserve those credits. He then voted for final passage of a bill that killed the very credits he said needed saving. As Environmental Advo

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "At a town hall in Carmel on May 2, 2025, Lawler told constituents: 'I will not vote for a bill that cuts Medicaid benefits for a single New Yorker.' H"

Vote: on "On May 22, 2025, Lawler voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, Roll Call 190), which t"

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Lawler explicitly promised constituents he 'will not vote for a bill that cuts Medicaid benefits for a single New Yorker.' He then voted for the OBBB, which the CBO projected would cause 7

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "In a January 27, 2026 New York Times op-ed, Lawler wrote that the ICE killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis were 'preventable' and cal"

Vote: on "Two weeks prior, Lawler's official statement on the killing of Renee Good described her death as 'sa"

Both quotes — that the Minneapolis deaths were 'preventable' (NYT op-ed) and 'sadly inevitable' (official statement) — come from Lawler himself within a two-week span. The contradiction was flagged in a lohud.com op-ed: 'Was it inevitable or preventa

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

View Full Entity Profile →