[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Jay Obernolte

Republican · Representative, CA ·23

Jay Obernolte is the Republican U.S. Representative (CA's 23rd congressional district). The platform has 4 voting records on file (2021-2025) and 90 verified facts on file covering this member's voting positions, financial disclosures, and stated platform commitments.

Score Components

61 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

41 → 8

Donor Influence 15%

66 → 10

Silence Risk 25%

69 → 17

Contradiction Risk 25%

54 → 14

Intelligence Volume 15%

88 → 13

Constituency Deviation 0%

43 → 0

Voting Misalignment 0%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

The small individual contribution share (0.42%) in Obernolte's 2023-2024 fundraising is anomalously low among House members, suggesting weak grassroots donor support and heavy reliance on organized money.

inferential · 2024-12-31

The inference that Obernolte's nay vote 'defied the interests of his top-donor tech sector' assumes unverified donor unanimity on CHIPS — no public evidence confirms that Google or other top donors actually supported the specific final bill

inferential · 2022-06-15

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 44.6%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 21.2%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 64.4%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 15.4%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $74,939

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 3 — Marriage Rights Protections (repeal Prop 8) (2024) — passed, margin 62.6%-37.4%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 36 — Homelessness, Drug Addiction and Theft Reduction Act (2024) — passed, margin 68.4%-31.6%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 (share 0.095)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.125)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.15)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Inland Empire Health Plan (4000 employees)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Amazon (fulfillment centers) (8000 employees)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: San Bernardino County (25654 employees)

secondary ✓ Verified

[ Show full fact ]

[constituency_baseline] District summary: California's 23rd Congressional District encompasses approximately 764,000 residents across San Bernardino County and portions of Kern and Los Angeles counties, including the high desert communities of Victorville, Hesperia, and Big Bear Lake. The district has a median household income of $74,939 and a median age of 34.7. It is a majority-minority district with a 44.6% Hispanic population and 46.6% White (non-Hispanic). Only 21.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or higher, significantly below the national average. The economy is anchored by healthcare and social assistance (44,207 workers), retail trade (36,853), educational services (27,971), and logistics/distribution. The district has an unemployment rate of 9% and a homeownership rate of 64.4%.

secondary ✓ Verified

Voted nay_unverified on H.R. 4346 (CHIPS and Science Act) on 2022-07-28: As a tech entrepreneur with a master's in AI and owner of a software company, Obernolte voted against $52.7 billion for semiconductor R&D and manufacturing. The vote aligned with the GOP majority but defied the interests of his top-donor tech sector, creating a cross-pressure between party discipline and industry alignment.

inferential · 2022-07-28 ✓ Verified

Voted yea_unverified on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act (House passage of Senate amendment)) on 2025-07-03: Obernolte voted for H.R. 1 despite projecting a fiscally conservative identity, creating cross-pressure between party loyalty and his public brand. The CBO projected the bill would add $3.4 trillion to deficits. Constituents in his district, where the median household income is $74,939, could face reduced…

[ Show full fact ]

inferential · 2025-07-03 ✓ Verified

Voted nay_unverified on H.R. 8035 (Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024) on 2024-04-20: Obernolte voted in favor of Ukraine aid in 2022 (Lend-Lease Act and 2022 Ukraine Supplemental) and 2023 (H.R. 5692), but reversed to oppose the 2024 supplemental. This shift aligns with the growing isolationist wing of the GOP, while his earlier support reflected the post-invasion bipartisan consensus. The…

[ Show full fact ]

inferential · 2024-04-20 ✓ Verified

Voted yea_unverified on H.J.Res. 11 (Objection to Arizona Electoral College Results — Joint Session of Congress Certification of 2020 Presidential Election) on 2021-01-06: Obernolte voted to sustain the objection to Arizona's electoral results and also objected to Pennsylvania's results. His district (then CA-08) was won by Biden, and the objection came hours after the Capitol riot. This vote placed him at odds…

[ Show full fact ]

inferential · 2021-01-06 ✓ Verified

House Energy and Commerce Committee committee_membership Jay Obernolte is a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Stacey Plaskett affiliation Connection documented in FINDING-2026-010

Chuck Schumer colleague Obernolte served in the U.S. House of Representatives alongside Chuck Schumer (who served as Senate Majority Leader during part of Obernolte's tenure).

Mckinsey & Company, Inc. United States Political Action Committee (Mckinsey PAC) donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00908228/

American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC donor $10,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00797670/

Constellation Energy Corporation Employee Political Action Committee (Cepac) donor $10,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (7 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00793711/

Raptor PAC donor $6,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00749481/

Asco Association Political Action Committee (Asco Association PAC) donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (3 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00734012/

Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. PAC (Booz Allen PAC) donor $6,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (5 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00709816/

Dropbox Inc PAC donor $6,600 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00695304/

American Revival PAC donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00639229/

In The Arena PAC donor $7,500 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00623512/

Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC) donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00592089/

Mallinckrodt LLC PAC donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00569152/

Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00563726/

News Corporation PAC (News Corp PAC) donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00546101/

Abbvie PAC donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00536573/

Psychology PAC Of American Psychological Association Services Inc. donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00522094/

Phillips 66 PAC donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00513549/

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Employees Political Action Committee (Mpac) donor $5,000 to Jay Obernolte's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00496307/

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
PROOF Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Water Resources Development Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Ratepayer Protection Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
An Act to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow early childhood…	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United…	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
National Fraud Enforcement Division Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Retire through Ownership Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers…	Nay	2026-09-15	unknown
GUARD Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Fostering the Use of Technology to Uphold Regulatory Effectiveness in…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Diesel Emissions Reduction Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Tax Relief for Fraud Victims Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills H.R. 9576 and H.R. 10326, providing…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills H.R. 9576 and H.R. 10326, providing…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Whistleblower Protection Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
National Wildlife Refuge System Invasive Species Strike Team Act	Yea	2026-09-14	unknown
Local Communities & Bird Habitat Stewardship Act	Yea	2026-09-14	unknown
Protect Economic and Academic Freedom Act	Not Voting	2026-09-03	unknown
Protecting Domestic Mining Act	Not Voting	2026-09-02	unknown
Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to require…	Not Voting	2026-09-02	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills (H.R. 1501, H.R. 9436, and H.R…	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
To amend the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 to extend the time period…	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
To amend the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 to extend the time period…	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
Providing for the condemnation and denouncement of socialism in all its forms…	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
In the matter of allegations relating to Representative Chuck Edwards	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
AGOA Extension Act	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills (H.R. 1501, H.R. 9436, and H.R…	Not Voting	2026-09-01	unknown
Prison Staff Safety Enhancement Act	Not Voting	2026-08-31	unknown

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Obernolte presents himself as a fiscal conservative, stating he supported the Fiscal Responsibility Act because it 'enacts the largest reduction in nondefense discretionary spending in the history of our country' and…

[ Show full platform position ]

Obernolte presents himself as a fiscal conservative, stating he supported the Fiscal Responsibility Act because it 'enacts the largest reduction in nondefense discretionary spending in the history of our country' and touted his support for a $9 billion rescissions package as 'a meaningful step towards reining in reckless federal spending and restoring fiscal sanity.'

Vote: on "Obernolte voted for H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the Congressional Budget Office…"

Obernolte has repeatedly touted fiscal conservatism and deficit reduction as core principles, yet voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) which the CBO projected would add $3.4 trillion to deficits over a decade, contradicting his public stance on fiscal discipline.

Last silence detection: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:42:27 GMT (via scheduled run)

other / unclassified

[ Show full donor-interest summary ]

Republican Mainstreet Partnership PAC, United Postmasters And Managers Of America Political Fund, Equipment Leasing And Finance Assn PAC (Leasepac), Specialty Equipment Market Association PAC, Psychology PAC Of American Psychological Association Services Inc., American Revival PAC, Asco Association Political Action Committee (Asco Association PAC) (amounts: $6,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $7,500 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026)) — interest area: other / unclassified

corporate pacs, industry unlisted

[ Show full donor-interest summary ]

Alticor Political Action Committee (Altipac), Cemex, Inc. Employeees PAC, Calportland Company Political Action Committee (Cpcc-PAC), Bentley Systems Inc. Federal PAC, Heidelberg Materials Us, Inc. PAC, Dropbox Inc PAC, Mckinsey & Company, Inc. United States Political Action Committee (Mckinsey PAC), Fox PAC, United States Cellular Corporation PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $7,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $6,600 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $8,500 (2024), $5,000 (2026)) — interest area: corporate pacs, industry unlisted

law & lobbying firms

American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC, Honeywell International PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2026), $7,500 (2026)) — interest area: law & lobbying firms

other candidates' committees

Friends Of Community Oncology PAC, Huck PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2024)) — interest area: other candidates' committees

party committees

Republican Governance Group/Tuesday Group PAC (amounts: $10,000 (2026)) — interest area: party committees

colleagues' leadership pacs

[ Show full donor-interest summary ]

Raptor PAC, Majority Committee PAC-Mc PAC, Cmr Political Action Committee, Bringing Republican Excellence To Town PAC (Brettpac), Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC, Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC), In The Arena PAC (amounts: $6,000 (2026), $10,000 (2024), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $7,500 (2026)) — interest area: colleagues' leadership pacs

National Beer Wholesalers Association PAC (Nbwa PAC) Alcohol & tobacco $5,000 (2024)

Mckinsey & Company, Inc. United States Political Action Committee (Mckinsey PAC) Corporate PACs, industry unlisted $5,000 (2026)

American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC Law & lobbying firms $5,000 (2026)

Constellation Energy Corporation Employee Political Action Committee (Cepac) Oil, gas & mining $10,000 (2026)

Raptor PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $6,000 (2026)

Asco Association Political Action Committee (Asco Association PAC) Other / unclassified $5,000 (2026)

Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. PAC (Booz Allen PAC) Defense & aerospace $6,000 (2024)

Dropbox Inc PAC Corporate PACs, industry unlisted $6,600 (2024)

American Revival PAC Other / unclassified $5,000 (2026)

In The Arena PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $7,500 (2026)

Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC) Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2026)

Mallinckrodt LLC PAC Health care & pharma $5,000 (2024)

Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2026)

News Corporation PAC (News Corp PAC) Telecom & media $5,000 (2024)

Abbvie PAC Health care & pharma $5,000 (2024)

Topic	Priority	Alignment	Deviation
Healthcare Access & Medicaid Funding	88	35	60
Rule of Law & Impeachment/Constitutional Issues	65	30	55
Military & Veterans Affairs	75	40	45
Immigration & Border Policy	82	50	40
Public Lands & Conservation	68	75	15
Tax Policy & Small Business Relief	78	80	12
Water Rights & Resources	92	85	10
Education & Workforce Development	76	78	10
Energy Costs & Ratepayer Protection	85	80	10
Fraud Prevention & Consumer Protection	72	82	8
Environmental Regulation & Emissions	70	88	8
Technology & Communications Policy	60	75	5

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Contradiction Risk	30%	Stated positions contradicted by the record (recent findings boosted)
Donor Influence	20%	Distinct documented donors (FEC Schedule A PACs); inferred donors do not count
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups; donor links excluded
Silence Risk	15%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Intelligence Volume	15%	Documented facts from verified sources
Constituency Deviation	0%	Shown, not weighted — a model estimate, not a record
Voting Misalignment	0%	Shown, not weighted — needs platform commitments almost nobody has; the roll-call record on /votes is the vote signal

Each component is the member's standing among all scored members of Congress, and the weighted sum is the overall score. Tiers are ranks: Critical is the top 5%, High the next 10%, Elevated the next 20%, Moderate the next 30%, and Low the rest.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

[PUBLIC COST ESTIMATE]

Documented financial relationships span 0 money flow chains, while 10 elected officials hold documented connections.

$7.2BDonor Contributions

0Money Chains

0Traced Hops

Connected Officials

Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague
Chuck Schumer U.S. Senate · colleague

Calculation Methodology

Contract values are summed from documented money flow chains where this entity appears as a source or destination node. Amounts are drawn from USASpending.gov, FEC filings, SEC EDGAR, or LD-2 lobbying registrations.

Donor contributions aggregate documented amounts from the donor_interests table, sourced from FEC individual and PAC contribution filings.

Connected officials are elected officials in our database with a mapped relationship (lobbying, board membership, campaign contribution, etc.) to this entity.

Annualised flow represents the total documented dollar amount traced through money flow hops involving this entity. Where hop-level amounts are unavailable, the chain-level documented total is used as a conservative upper bound.

All figures are drawn from public filings. Estimates are conservative — undisclosed transactions, dark money, and vanish-point hops are excluded from totals. This is a minimum documented floor, not a ceiling.

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