[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Jay Obernolte

Republican · Representative, CA ·23

Score Components

17 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

4 → 1

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

46 → 12

Intelligence Volume 10%

46 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 44.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 21.2%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 64.4%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 15.4%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $74,939

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 3 — Marriage Rights Protections (repeal Prop 8) (2024) — passed, margin 62.6%-37.4%

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 36 — Homelessness, Drug Addiction and Theft Reduction Act (2024) — passed, margin 68.4%-31.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 (share 0.095)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.125)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.15)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Inland Empire Health Plan (4000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Amazon (fulfillment centers) (8000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: San Bernardino County (25654 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: California's 23rd Congressional District encompasses approximately 764,000 residents across San Bernardino County and portions of Kern and Los Angeles counties, including the high desert communities of Victorville, Hesperia, and Big Bear Lake. The district has a median household income of $74,939 and a median age of

secondary

Voted nay_unverified on H.R. 4346 (CHIPS and Science Act) on 2022-07-28: As a tech entrepreneur with a master's in AI and owner of a software company, Obernolte voted against $52.7 billion for semiconductor R&D and manufacturing. The vote aligned with the GOP majority but defied the interests of his top-donor tech sector, creating a cross-pressure between pa

inferential · 2022-07-28

Voted yea_unverified on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act (House passage of Senate amendment)) on 2025-07-03: Obernolte voted for H.R. 1 despite projecting a fiscally conservative identity, creating cross-pressure between party loyalty and his public brand. The CBO projected the bill would add $3.4 trillion to deficits. Constituents in his district, where t

inferential · 2025-07-03

Voted nay_unverified on H.R. 8035 (Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024) on 2024-04-20: Obernolte voted in favor of Ukraine aid in 2022 (Lend-Lease Act and 2022 Ukraine Supplemental) and 2023 (H.R. 5692), but reversed to oppose the 2024 supplemental. This shift aligns with the growing isolationist wing of the GOP, while his earlier support

inferential · 2024-04-20

Voted yea_unverified on H.J.Res. 11 (Objection to Arizona Electoral College Results — Joint Session of Congress Certification of 2020 Presidential Election) on 2021-01-06: Obernolte voted to sustain the objection to Arizona's electoral results and also objected to Pennsylvania's results. His district (then CA-08) was won by Biden, and the objection came hour

inferential · 2021-01-06

[vote] Obernolte voted for H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the Congressional Budget Office warned would 'increase deficits over the 2025-2034 period by $3.4 trillion,' a vote that an editorial board described as contradictory to his fiscal conservative image.

primary · 2025-07-03

[statement] Obernolte presents himself as a fiscal conservative, stating he supported the Fiscal Responsibility Act because it 'enacts the largest reduction in nondefense discretionary spending in the history of our country' and touted his support for a $9 billion rescissions package as 'a meaningful step towards reining in reckless federal spending and rest

primary · 2023-05-31

Stacey Plaskett related Connection documented in FINDING-2026-010

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (House passage of Senate amendment)	yea_unverified	2025-07-03	mixed
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	nay_unverified	2024-04-20	misaligned
CHIPS and Science Act	nay_unverified	2022-07-28	mixed
Objection to Arizona Electoral College Results — Joint Session of Congress Certi	yea_unverified	2021-01-06	misaligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Obernolte presents himself as a fiscal conservative, stating he supported the Fiscal Responsibility Act because it 'enacts the largest reduction in no"

Vote: on "Obernolte voted for H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the Congressional Budget Office wa"

Obernolte has repeatedly touted fiscal conservatism and deficit reduction as core principles, yet voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) which the CBO projected would add $3.4 trillion to deficits over a decade, contradicting his public stance

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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