[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Chris Pappas

Democratic · Representative, NH ·1

Score Components

28 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

10 → 3

Contradiction Risk 25%

82 → 21

Intelligence Volume 10%

54 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 41.5%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 4.5%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 71.8%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White alone, not Hispanic or Latino: 87.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024): 708,843

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $102,258 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Question 2 — Constitutional Amendment: Independent Redistricting Commission (2022, advisory) (2022) — failed, margin majority no

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Question 1 — Constitutional Convention (mandated every 10 years) (2022) — failed, margin 64% no to 36% yes

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: CACR 13 — Constitutional Amendment: Raise mandatory judicial retirement age from 70 to 75 (2024) — passed, margin majority yes

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 (share 0.12)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.15)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.17)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: J. Jill (Tilton) (2000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University System of New Hampshire (Durham) (5000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Elliot Health System (Manchester) (4000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Fidelity Investments (Merrimack) (6000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District covers parts of Southern New Hampshire and the eastern portion of the state, including all of Strafford and Carroll counties and parts of Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, Grafton, and Belknap counties. It includes the city of Manchester (New Hampshire's largest city), th

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Voted yea on H.Res. 24 (117th Congress, Second Impeachment) (Second Impeachment of President Donald Trump) on 2021-01-13: Voted to impeach Trump for inciting the January 6 Capitol insurrection. As a moderate in a swing district, this vote carried political risk. Pappas also supported the first Trump impeachment in 2019 as a freshman, stating on NHPR that 're

primary · 2021-01-13

Voted nay on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act)) on 2025-04-10: Voted against requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote. Stated the bill 'would force unnecessary federal changes to state voter registration and election procedures, creating even more undue burdens for married women, military members and their fam

primary · 2025-04-10

Voted yea on H.R. 3746 (Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023) on 2023-05-31: Voted to suspend the debt ceiling and avoid catastrophic default, joining 165 Democrats and 149 Republicans. Said: 'I voted yes to pass this bill. The Fiscal Responsibility Act is far from perfect... it is important to note that this final settlement is the result of a divided governme

primary · 2023-05-31

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act	nay	2025-07-03	deviating
SAVE Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act)	nay	2025-04-10	deviating
Laken Riley Act	yea	2025-01-22	deviating
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	yea	2024-04-20	deviating
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023	yea	2023-05-31	deviating
Respect for Marriage Act	yea	2022-12-08	deviating
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act	yea	2021-11-05	deviating
American Rescue Plan Act of 2021	yea	2021-02-27	deviating
Second Impeachment of President Donald Trump	yea	2021-01-13	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

party_defection 90/100

Platform: "Pappas voted in favor of the Laken Riley Act on both January 7 and January 22, 2025, becoming one of only 48 House Democrats to support mandatory ICE "

Vote: on "Pappas touts his small business background and received the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement, ye"

Pappas was one of 48 House Democrats to vote for the Laken Riley Act, breaking sharply with the majority of his party on mandatory ICE detention. Meanwhile, he receives both Chamber of Commerce and AFL-CIO endorsements — a rare combination that highl

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Pappas was ranked the most bipartisan House Democrat and 3rd in bipartisanship overall in 2023 by the Lugar Center. CQ Roll Call's Vote Studies analys"

Vote: on "Pappas voted with every single House Democrat against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and his AFL-CI"

Pappas is touted as the most bipartisan House Democrat and breaks with his party on select procedural votes, yet his substantive voting record — 97% AFL-CIO score, opposing OBBB, supporting impeachment, opposing GOP budget resolutions — aligns almost

platform_vs_vote 30/100

Platform: "Pappas voted against the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act to legalize cannabis at the federal level in 2020, becoming one"

Vote: on "Pappas criticized President Biden's plan to cancel $10,000 in federal student debt for most borrower"

Pappas cultivates a moderate image and has voted against legalizing cannabis federally (one of only six House Democrats to do so) and criticized Biden's student debt plan — positions that break from progressive orthodoxy and underscore his centrist p

Last silence detection: Never

Gaza ceasefire resolution (H.Res. 786) — refusal to sign on as co-sponsor

290d silent

Expected position: As one of the most bipartisan House Democrats representing a district with a significant college population and as an openly gay member who champions human rights, Pappas would be e

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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