[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Michael A. Rulli

Republican · Representative, OH ·6

Score Components

14 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

18 → 5

Intelligence Volume 10%

46 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Average Hourly Wage (Youngstown MSA): $25.03

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: 2024 Trump Vote Share (OH-06): 71%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Manufacturing Employment Trend: Rebounding from post-2008 lows

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate (Mahoning County): 15.3%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income (Youngstown MSA): $55,000

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 2 - Raise Minimum Wage to $15 (2024) — passed, margin 57.2% yes

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Ohio Issue 1 - Voting Rights Amendment (2024) — failed, margin 53.3% no to 46.7% yes

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 - Accommodation & Food Services (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care & Social Assistance (share 0.14)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.15)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Retail Trade sector (22000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Healthcare & Social Assistance sector (28000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Manufacturing sector (Youngstown-Warren MSA) (35000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] District summary: Ohio's 6th Congressional District covers the northeastern corner of the state including Mahoning, Trumbull, and portions of Stark counties. The district centers on the Youngstown-Warren metropolitan area, historically known as the 'Rust Belt' for its steel industry. The area has struggled with deindustrialization sin

secondary

Voted yea on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on 2025-04-28: OH-06 has a 15.3% poverty rate and significant manufacturing sector. The bill's Medicaid cuts and federal spending reductions may affect the district's healthcare sector (top employer) and social services. Rulli's vote aligned with Trump and party leadership despite potential constituent impact

primary · 2025-04-28

Voted yea on H.R.1908 (End Congressional Stock Trading Act) on 2025-04-01: Rulli voted for banning stock trading by Congress members despite his own significant wealth ($10.1-37 million) primarily in real estate and business holdings rather than diversified stock portfolios. This represents donor_defection from financial industry interests if they opposed th

primary · 2025-04-01

Voted nay on S.J.Res.49 (Joint resolution terminating the national emergency declared to impose global tariffs) on 2025-04-01: OH-06 is centered on the Youngstown area with historic steel mill employment. Rulli publicly championed Trump's tariffs as revitalizing Rust Belt communities in multiple interviews. Voting against this resolution to terminate tariffs

primary · 2025-04-01

[statement] Rulli stated he supports tariffs as a 'national security issue' for American steel production

primary · 2025-03-15

[statement] Rulli claims to be '100% with President Trump' and an 'America First' conservative

primary · 2025-01-01

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act	yea	2025-04-28	mixed
Joint resolution terminating the national emergency declared to impose global ta	nay	2025-04-01	aligned
End Congressional Stock Trading Act	yea	2025-04-01	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Rulli stated he supports Trump's tariffs as 'revitalizing Rust Belt communities' and bringing manufacturing back to Ohio"

Vote: on "Rulli claims to be '100% with President Trump' and an 'America First' conservative"

Both quotes come from the same period where Rulli aligned completely with Trump. The 'America First' positioning on tariffs directly benefits the steel industry in his district - this represents alignment rather than contradiction, but flagged as sam

Last silence detection: Never

Healthcare PAC donations and policy position

213d silent

Expected position: As a new Congressman with healthcare PAC donations from Molina Healthcare and Centene, Rulli would be expected to address his position on healthcare policy, especially given OH-06's

Ohio Manufacturing Extension Partnership funding cut

28d silent

Expected position: OH-06 has significant manufacturing sector with tariffs benefiting steel and related industries. Rulli would be expected to address cuts to MEP programs that help manufacturers Evi

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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