[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Christopher H. Smith

Republican · Representative, NJ ·4

Score Components

35 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

53 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+14 (Wikipedia 2023) / R+36 (LegisLetter 2026); Trump won the district by 10+ points in 2020

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: SALT Deduction Usage: 42% of NJ taxpayers use the SALT deduction (highest in the nation); average SALT deduction in Smith's district: $18,355

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid Enrollment (NJ-4): Ocean County: 168,437 recipients (2nd highest in NJ); Monmouth County: 83,117; 1.8 million NJ residents rely on NJ FamilyCare (18% of state population)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Age: 40.8 years (vs. 38.5 nationally)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: White (Non-Hispanic) 81.9%, Hispanic 11.1%, Black or African American 3.3%, Asian 2.5%, Two or More Races 2.7%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 40.3% (vs. 33.7% nationally)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 79.5% (vs. 65.5% nationally); median home value $461,100; median rent $1,749

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 6.0% (vs. 12.4% nationally)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $99,155 (vs. $78,538 national median); Census Bureau: $103,769

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024): 788,486

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: New Jersey Public Question 2 (2021) — Allow organizations to use raffle proceeds for their own purposes (2021) — passed, margin 61.9% Yes — 38.1% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: New Jersey Public Question 1 (2021) — Permit sports betting on college teams; expand charitable gaming (2021) — passed, margin 57.6% Yes — 42.4% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 (Educational Services — including Lakewood's large private school network) (share 9)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 (Accommodation and Food Services — tourism, Jersey Shore) (share 9)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (Retail Trade) (share 12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (Health Care and Social Assistance) (share 16)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Monmouth County Government (4000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Bais Medrash Govoah (Lakewood yeshiva) (1000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Six Flags Great Adventure (4000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: RWJBarnabas Health (Monmouth Medical Center, Community Medical Center) (38000 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act — $1.2 trillion for roads, bridges, broad	yea	2021-11-06	deviating
National Commission to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Cap	yea	2021-05-19	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

reversal 90/100

Platform: "Smith is the author of the landmark Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 and five subsequent anti-human-trafficking laws. He has been celebrated"

Vote: on "Smith voted against reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) in 2013. He objected to"

Smith is celebrated internationally as the author of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act, yet voted against the Violence Against Women Act reauthorization because it included protections for LGBTQ+ individuals and Native American tribes. Critics a

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Smith voted in favor of creating an independent commission to investigate the January 6th Capitol attack, stating: 'The attack on January 6 resulted i"

Vote: on "Smith voted against the second impeachment of Donald Trump for incitement of insurrection. He also v"

Smith voted to create a bipartisan Jan. 6 commission and spoke forcefully about the 'tragic loss of life,' yet voted against impeaching Trump for inciting the insurrection and against holding Steve Bannon in contempt. The split earned him a 'C-' grad

reversal 60/100

Platform: "Smith voted against H.R. 1, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, citing the cap on the SALT deduction as unfair to New Jersey residents. He stated the b"

Vote: on "In July 2025, Smith voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he said 'provides the largest ta"

Smith voted against the 2017 Trump tax bill over SALT deduction concerns, but in 2025 voted for the Big Beautiful Bill while claiming it addressed SALT — a characterization Gov. Murphy and other NJ Democrats contested as inadequate for high-tax New J

platform_vs_vote 60/100

Platform: "Smith has been ranked the 30th most bipartisan member of the House by the Lugar Center and has been recognized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for bip"

Vote: on "Smith voted against the Respect for Marriage Act in December 2022, which codified federal protection"

Smith touts his bipartisanship, yet voted against the Respect for Marriage Act, a bill with bipartisan support that 39 Republicans backed. His no vote aligned him with the most conservative wing of his party on an issue of personal liberty.

Last silence detection: Never

Refusal to hold in-person town halls for over three decades

12144d silent

Expected position: As the longest-serving congressman from New Jersey, Smith would be expected to hold open, in-person town hall meetings accessible to all constituents. Evidence of activity on adjac

Silence on District Medicaid concerns amid budget vote

20d silent

Expected position: As representative of a district where Ocean County alone has 168,437 Medicaid recipients — the second-highest in New Jersey — Smith would be expected to explain his vote for a budge

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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