[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Jason Smith

Republican · Representative, MO ·8

Score Components

9 LOW

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

18 → 5

Intelligence Volume 10%

48 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 40.3

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 72.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 20.8%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 15.5%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $60,159

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Missouri Amendment 2 — Legalize Sports Betting (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 50.1% Yes — 49.9% No

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Missouri Proposition A — Minimum Wage Increase and Paid Sick Leave (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 57.6% Yes — 42.4% No

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Missouri Amendment 3 — Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 51.6% Yes — 48.4% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.123)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (share 0.127)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.166)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Retail Trade (42474 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Manufacturing (43757 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Health Care & Social Assistance (57230 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Missouri's 8th Congressional District encompasses 28 counties across rural Southeast and South Central Missouri, including the Bootheel region, Cape Girardeau, and Rolla. It is the poorest congressional district in Missouri and one of the poorest in the nation, with a median household income of $60,159, a poverty rat

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Voted nay_unverified on H.R. 4346 (CHIPS and Science Act of 2022) on 2022-07-27: Against constituent interest: Smith's district employs 43,757 workers in manufacturing — the second-largest employment sector. The CHIPS Act invested $52 billion in domestic semiconductor manufacturing, promising manufacturing job growth. Smith voted NAY, opposing a bill that wo

inferential · 2022-07-27

Voted yea_unverified on H.R. 7217 (Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024) on 2024-02-06: Donor-aligned: Smith joined all but 4 Republicans voting YEA on $17.6 billion in standalone Israel military aid. The vote aligned with his top-five career donor American Israel Public Affairs Cmte ($84,850 total). Smith also took an AIPAC-sponsored trip t

inferential · 2024-02-06

Voted nay on H.R. 8035 (Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024) on 2024-04-20: Reversal: Smith voted in favor of Ukraine aid in 2022 (Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, 2022 Ukraine Supplemental) but voted NAY on the 2024 supplemental. The GOPforUkraine profile downgraded him to D- grade. Smith had previously stated 'Putin's aggression

primary · 2024-04-20

Voted yea on H.R. 2811 (Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023) on 2023-04-26: Cross-pressure: Smith represents Missouri's poorest congressional district (median income $60,159, poverty rate 15.5 percent). The bill would slash domestic spending by $144 billion, risking Medicaid coverage for 10 million low-income Americans and eliminating food assistance for millions

primary · 2023-04-26

Voted yea on H.R. 3746 (Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling Deal)) on 2023-05-31: Reversal: In 2013, Smith said 'I cannot support this legislation' on raising the debt limit and urged 'cut up the credit cards.' A decade later as Ways and Means Chairman, he voted YEA on the bipartisan debt-ceiling deal negotiated by Speaker McCarthy and President

primary · 2023-05-31

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	nay	2024-04-20	misaligned
Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	yea_unverified	2024-02-06	aligned
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling Deal)	yea	2023-05-31	misaligned
Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023	yea	2023-04-26	mixed
CHIPS and Science Act of 2022	nay_unverified	2022-07-27	misaligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: ""And then you can look at Medicaid cuts" — Rep. Jason Smith on Fox News's The Will Cain Show discussing Republican budget priorities."

Vote: on ""Uh, Medicaid reforms, I should say" — Smith immediately correcting himself during the same Fox News"

Both quotes come from the same Fox News appearance. Smith said 'Medicaid cuts' then immediately corrected to 'Medicaid reforms.' While a self-correction rather than a contradiction between two independent statements, the slip inadvertently confirmed

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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