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[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS
// Legislative Integrity Monitor
Goblin House Intelligence
CongressOfficials → Lloyd Smucker

Lloyd Smucker

Republican · Representative, PA ·11
Score Components
21 MODERATE
Connection Density 20%
0 → 0
Donor Influence 10%
0 → 0
Silence Risk 25%
10 → 3
Contradiction Risk 25%
54 → 14
Intelligence Volume 10%
54 → 5
Constituency Deviation 5%
0 → 0
Voting Misalignment 5%
0 → 0
% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.
[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 772,863 (2024)
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median rent: $1,328
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 3.6%
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 40.2
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-born population: 4.85% (37.4k)
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 9.67% (74.7k)
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 81.1% (627k)
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median property value: $289,400
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 30.9%
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 72.2%
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 7.9% (2024)
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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $87,221 (2024)
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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Pennsylvania statewide — Mail-in ballot 'notice and cure' policies (2024 election) (2024) — implemented, margin helped over 9,000 Pennsylvanians have their votes counted
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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Lancaster County — Multiple school district ballot referenda (2023-2025) (2025) — mixed, margin varies by district
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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (share 0.045)
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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.116)
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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.146)
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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.153)
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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: CNH Industrial America LLC (New Holland) (2000 employees)
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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Dart Container Corporation (2500 employees)
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No connections mapped
BillVoteDateAlignment
Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (Farm Bill) — On Passage yea 2026-04-30 mixed
Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026 — On Passage (Ending the 43-D yea_unverified 2025-11-12 mixed
One Big Beautiful Bill Act — On Motion to Concur in the Senate Amendment yea 2025-07-03 aligned
Laken Riley Act — On Passage yea_unverified 2025-01-07 mixed
Respect for Marriage Act — On Concurring in the Senate Amendment nay_unverified 2022-12-08 deviating
Last contradiction analysis: Never
position_evolution 60/100
Platform: "In a May 16, 2025 X post explaining his procedural 'no' vote on the OBBB in Budget Committee, Smucker stated: 'To be clear—I fully support the One Big"
Vote: on "Smucker voted to advance the OBBB in the Budget Committee on Sunday, May 18, 2025 (flipping from his"
Smucker used a procedural vote switch (yes→no) to preserve reconsideration rights while publicly insisting he 'fully supports' the OBBB. The maneuver allowed him to posture as a fiscal hawk on Friday while paving the way for his eventual yes vote on
same_source_inconsistency 30/100
Platform: "Smucker and four fiscal hawks voted against the OBBB in the Budget Committee on May 16, 2025, sinking the bill 21-16. Media reports and his own prior "
Vote: on "Smucker voted to advance the OBBB in the Budget Committee on Sunday, May 18, 2025 (flipping from his"
[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Smucker positioned himself as a leading fiscal hawk, voting against the OBBB in committee on Friday, May 16, then switched to yes on Sunday, May 18, and ultimately voted for a bill the CBO
same_source_inconsistency 30/100
Platform: "Smucker authored a provision in the OBBB's House version requiring tax cuts to be offset by spending reductions, binding reconciliation instructions t"
Vote: on "The CBO found the final OBBB cut just $1.2 trillion in spending against $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, e"
[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Smucker authored and championed binding reconciliation language requiring spending cuts to match tax cuts, telling GOP leaders they 'must hold that line on fiscal discipline.' He then vote
Last silence detection: Never
Trump administration's court challenge blocking court-ordered SNAP payments during the 43-day government shutdown while Smucker publicly blamed Democrats for the shutdown
42d silent
Expected position: As Vice Chair of the House Budget Committee representing a district with 7.9% poverty rate where SNAP benefits are critical, Smucker would be expected to address why the Trump admin
No donor interests mapped
No constituency baseline modelled
No platform commitments archived
No committee memberships recorded
Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

ComponentWeightSignal
Silence Risk25%Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk25%Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density20%Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume10%Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence10%Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation5%Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment5%Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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