[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Lloyd Smucker

Republican · Representative, PA ·11

Lloyd Smucker is the Republican U.S. Representative (PA's 11th congressional district). The platform has 5 voting records on file (2022-2026) and 99 verified facts on file covering this member's voting positions, financial disclosures, and stated platform commitments.

Score Components

64 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

56 → 11

Donor Influence 15%

69 → 10

Silence Risk 25%

48 → 12

Contradiction Risk 25%

59 → 15

Intelligence Volume 15%

91 → 14

Constituency Deviation 0%

47 → 0

Voting Misalignment 0%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population: 772,863 (2024)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median rent: $1,328

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 3.6%

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 40.2

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Foreign-born population: 4.85% (37.4k)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 9.67% (74.7k)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White (Non-Hispanic) population share: 81.1% (627k)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median property value: $289,400

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 30.9%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 72.2%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 7.9% (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $87,221 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Pennsylvania statewide — Mail-in ballot 'notice and cure' policies (2024 election) (2024) — implemented, margin helped over 9,000 Pennsylvanians have their votes counted

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Lancaster County — Multiple school district ballot referenda (2023-2025) (2025) — mixed, margin varies by district

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (share 0.045)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.116)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 - Manufacturing (share 0.146)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.153)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: CNH Industrial America LLC (New Holland) (2000 employees)

secondary ✓ Verified

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Dart Container Corporation (2500 employees)

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Donald Trump policy_assurance Smucker cited verbal 'assurances' from Trump to justify his flip to vote for the OBBB, despite the bill violating his fiscal hawk demands.

US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) legislation_support Voted for the Laken Riley Act requiring mandatory ICE detention for undocumented immigrants charged with theft.

Glenn Thompson colleague Both represent Pennsylvania districts in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Mike Johnson policy_assurance Smucker cited verbal 'assurances' from Johnson to justify his flip to vote for the OBBB, despite the bill violating his fiscal hawk demands.

One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) legislation_voted Smucker initially voted no procedurally (May 16, 2025) to preserve reconsideration, then flipped to yes on May 18, and voted yea on final passage (July 3…

American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC donor $10,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00797670/

Constellation Energy Corporation Employee Political Action Committee (Cepac) donor $10,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00793711/

American Association Of Settlement Consultants PAC (Aasc PAC) donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00767772/

Re-Joyce PAC donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00691501/

The Carlyle Group Inc. PAC (Aka 'Carlyle PAC') donor $10,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00689091/

Bulldog PAC donor $10,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00672733/

American Revival PAC donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00639229/

Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC) donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00592089/

Building America'S Republican Representation PAC donor $10,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00572271/

Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC donor $10,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (2 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00563726/

Select Medical Corporation PAC donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00546119/

Innovation PAC donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00540187/

Society For Cardiovascular Angiography And Interventions (Scai) PAC donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2026 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00519371/

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Employees Political Action Committee (Mpac) donor $7,500 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (3 contributions), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00496307/

American Investment Council PAC - Aic PAC donor $5,000 to Lloyd Smucker's principal committee in the 2024 cycle (1 contribution), FEC Schedule A line 11C. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00495002/

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
An Act to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow early childhood…	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United…	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Ratepayer Protection Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
PROOF Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
National Fraud Enforcement Division Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Water Resources Development Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Retire through Ownership Act	Yea	2026-09-16	unknown
Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
GUARD Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Tax Relief for Fraud Victims Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Diesel Emissions Reduction Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers…	Nay	2026-09-15	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills H.R. 9576 and H.R. 10326, providing…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Fostering the Use of Technology to Uphold Regulatory Effectiveness in…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills H.R. 9576 and H.R. 10326, providing…	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Whistleblower Protection Act	Yea	2026-09-15	unknown
Local Communities & Bird Habitat Stewardship Act	Yea	2026-09-14	unknown
National Wildlife Refuge System Invasive Species Strike Team Act	Yea	2026-09-14	unknown
Protect Economic and Academic Freedom Act	Yea	2026-09-03	unknown
Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to require…	Yea	2026-09-02	unknown
Protecting Domestic Mining Act	Yea	2026-09-02	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills (H.R. 1501, H.R. 9436, and H.R…	Yea	2026-09-01	unknown
To amend the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 to extend the time period…	Yea	2026-09-01	unknown
To amend the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 to extend the time period…	Nay	2026-09-01	unknown
Providing for the condemnation and denouncement of socialism in all its forms…	Yea	2026-09-01	unknown
In the matter of allegations relating to Representative Chuck Edwards	Yea	2026-09-01	unknown
AGOA Extension Act	Yea	2026-09-01	unknown
Providing for consideration of the bills (H.R. 1501, H.R. 9436, and H.R…	Yea	2026-09-01	unknown
Local Access to Courts Act	Yea	2026-08-31	unknown

Last contradiction analysis: Never

position_evolution 60/100

Platform: "In a May 16, 2025 X post explaining his procedural 'no' vote on the OBBB in Budget Committee, Smucker stated: 'To be clear—I fully support the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). My vote today in the Budget Committee is a…

[ Show full platform position ]

In a May 16, 2025 X post explaining his procedural 'no' vote on the OBBB in Budget Committee, Smucker stated: 'To be clear—I fully support the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). My vote today in the Budget Committee is a procedural requirement to preserve the committee's opportunity to reconsider the motion to advance OBBB.' He had initially voted yes, then switched his vote to no.

Vote: on "Smucker voted to advance the OBBB in the Budget Committee on Sunday, May 18, 2025 (flipping from…"

Smucker used a procedural vote switch (yes→no) to preserve reconsideration rights while publicly insisting he 'fully supports' the OBBB. The maneuver allowed him to posture as a fiscal hawk on Friday while paving the way for his eventual yes vote on Sunday. Both votes appear in the official record as sequential…

[ Show full analysis ]

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Smucker and four fiscal hawks voted against the OBBB in the Budget Committee on May 16, 2025, sinking the bill 21-16. Media reports and his own prior statements positioned him as a deficit hawk demanding that the…

[ Show full platform position ]

Smucker and four fiscal hawks voted against the OBBB in the Budget Committee on May 16, 2025, sinking the bill 21-16. Media reports and his own prior statements positioned him as a deficit hawk demanding that the bill's $4.5 trillion in tax cuts be offset by at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.

Vote: on "Smucker voted to advance the OBBB in the Budget Committee on Sunday, May 18, 2025 (flipping from…"

[ Show full analysis ]

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Smucker positioned himself as a leading fiscal hawk, voting against the OBBB in committee on Friday, May 16, then switched to yes on Sunday, May 18, and ultimately voted for a bill the CBO found would add $3.3 trillion to the deficit. The bill violated his own binding reconciliation provision requiring $2 trillion in spending cuts to offset tax cuts. Smucker publicly characterized his reversal as accepting 'assurances' from Trump and Johnson about future deficit reduction — a non-binding commitment he could not enforce.

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Smucker authored a provision in the OBBB's House version requiring tax cuts to be offset by spending reductions, binding reconciliation instructions that 'set a floor for savings, not a ceiling.'"

Vote: on "The CBO found the final OBBB cut just $1.2 trillion in spending against $4.5 trillion in tax cuts…"

[ Show full analysis ]

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] Smucker authored and championed binding reconciliation language requiring spending cuts to match tax cuts, telling GOP leaders they 'must hold that line on fiscal discipline.' He then voted for a final bill that ignored his own provision — cutting only $1.2 trillion against $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. This is a direct contradiction between the fiscal framework he built and the bill he ultimately supported.

Last silence detection: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 00:54:57 GMT (via scheduled run)

Trump administration's court challenge blocking court-ordered SNAP payments during the 43-day government shutdown while Smucker publicly blamed Democrats for the shutdown

42d silent

[ Show full donor-interest summary ]

Expected position: As Vice Chair of the House Budget Committee representing a district with 7.9% poverty rate where SNAP benefits are critical, Smucker would be expected to address why the Trump administration fought in court to prevent food assistance payments from reaching constituents during the prolonged government shutdown. Evidence of activity on adjacent topics: Smucker was highly active during this window blaming Democrats for the shutdown, visiting Blessings of Hope food pantry in Lancaster with Rep. Jim Jordan on November 7, and slamming Democrats for not supporting a stopgap spending bill. However, when asked by a reporter why the Trump administration was fighting in court to prevent SNAP benefits from reaching people during the shutdown, Smucker said he 'isn't sure' — a notably evasive response from the Budget Committee Vice Chair who had made fiscal discipline his signature issue. Primary URL: https://radio.wpsu.org/wpsu-news/2025-11-10/reps-smucker-jordan-speak-on-snap-government-shutdown-in-visit-to-anti-hunger-nonprofit

other candidates' committees

Huck PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024)) — interest area: other candidates' committees

other / unclassified

[ Show full donor-interest summary ]

Society For Cardiovascular Angiography And Interventions (Scai) PAC, American Revival PAC, American Association Of Settlement Consultants PAC (Aasc PAC), Kelley Drye & Warren PAC, National Confectioners Association Of The United States, Inc. Political Action Committee (, American Osteopathic Information Association, American Staffing Association Staffing PAC, Esop PAC, Healthcare Distribution Alliance Political Action Committee, Office Of The Commissioner Of Major League Baseball PAC, Federation Of Exchange Accomodators 1031 PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $10,000 (2026), $5,500 (2024), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2026), $5,000 (2024), $5,000 (2024)) — interest area: other / unclassified

colleagues' leadership pacs

[ Show full donor-interest summary ]

Innovation PAC, Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC, Building America'S Republican Representation PAC, Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC), Bulldog PAC, Re-Joyce PAC, House Conservatives Fund, Gridiron-PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024), $10,000 (2026), $10,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $10,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $6,500 (2024), $7,500 (2026)) — interest area: colleagues' leadership pacs

corporate pacs, industry unlisted

Highmark PAC Of Highmark Inc., Cnh Industrial Excellence In Government Fund, Johnson Controls Inc. Political Action Committee, Dunkin' PAC (amounts: $5,000 (2024), $10,000 (2026), $5,000 (2026), $7,500 (2024)) — interest area: corporate pacs, industry unlisted

Wine And Spirits Wholesalers Of America, Inc. PAC Alcohol & tobacco $6,000 (2026)

National Beer Wholesalers Association PAC (Nbwa PAC) Alcohol & tobacco $5,000 (2026)

American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC Law & lobbying firms $5,000 (2026)

Constellation Energy Corporation Employee Political Action Committee (Cepac) Oil, gas & mining $10,000 (2026)

American Association Of Settlement Consultants PAC (Aasc PAC) Other / unclassified $5,000 (2026)

Re-Joyce PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2026)

The Carlyle Group Inc. PAC (Aka 'Carlyle PAC') Finance & banking $10,000 (2024)

Bulldog PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $10,000 (2026)

American Revival PAC Other / unclassified $5,000 (2024)

Electing Majority Making Effective Republicans (Emmer PAC) Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2026)

Building America'S Republican Representation PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $10,000 (2026)

Mr. Southern Missourian In The House PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $10,000 (2026)

Select Medical Corporation PAC Health care & pharma $5,000 (2024)

Innovation PAC Colleagues' leadership PACs $5,000 (2024)

Society For Cardiovascular Angiography And Interventions (Scai) PAC Other / unclassified $5,000 (2026)

Topic	Priority	Alignment	Deviation
SNAP and Nutrition Assistance	68	45	55
Healthcare Access and Costs	69	50	50
Energy and Environment	55	70	30
Transportation and Infrastructure	64	72	28
Government Spending and Deficits	74	72	28
Veterans and Military Affairs	53	74	26
Disaster Relief and Emergency Management	62	75	25
Immigration and Border Security	82	78	22
Trade and Taiwan Relations	58	80	20
Social Issues and Cultural Policy	66	85	15
Public Safety and Law Enforcement	71	85	15
Agricultural Policy and Farm Bill Support	96	90	10

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Contradiction Risk	30%	Stated positions contradicted by the record (recent findings boosted)
Donor Influence	20%	Distinct documented donors (FEC Schedule A PACs); inferred donors do not count
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups; donor links excluded
Silence Risk	15%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Intelligence Volume	15%	Documented facts from verified sources
Constituency Deviation	0%	Shown, not weighted — a model estimate, not a record
Voting Misalignment	0%	Shown, not weighted — needs platform commitments almost nobody has; the roll-call record on /votes is the vote signal

Each component is the member's standing among all scored members of Congress, and the weighted sum is the overall score. Tiers are ranks: Critical is the top 5%, High the next 10%, Elevated the next 20%, Moderate the next 30%, and Low the rest.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

[PUBLIC COST ESTIMATE]

Documented financial relationships span 0 money flow chains, while 2 elected officials hold documented connections.

$7.7BDonor Contributions

0Money Chains

0Traced Hops

Connected Officials

Mike Johnson U.S. House · policy_assurance
Glenn Thompson U.S. House · colleague

Calculation Methodology

Contract values are summed from documented money flow chains where this entity appears as a source or destination node. Amounts are drawn from USASpending.gov, FEC filings, SEC EDGAR, or LD-2 lobbying registrations.

Donor contributions aggregate documented amounts from the donor_interests table, sourced from FEC individual and PAC contribution filings.

Connected officials are elected officials in our database with a mapped relationship (lobbying, board membership, campaign contribution, etc.) to this entity.

Annualised flow represents the total documented dollar amount traced through money flow hops involving this entity. Where hop-level amounts are unavailable, the chain-level documented total is used as a conservative upper bound.

All figures are drawn from public filings. Estimates are conservative — undisclosed transactions, dark money, and vanish-point hops are excluded from totals. This is a minimum documented floor, not a ceiling.

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