[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Greg Stanton

Democratic · Representative, AZ ·4

Score Components

19 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

36 → 9

Intelligence Volume 10%

53 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median rent: $1,706/month (national: $1,163)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index (2026 rating): D+7 — Lean Seat; shifted R+5 from prior cycle

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic/Latino population share: 26.5%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 7.7% (national: 12.4%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 39.1% (national: 33.7%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 35.3 (national: 38.5) — one of the younger districts in Congress

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 55.9% (national: 65.5%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024 estimate): 804,739 — part of Greater Phoenix metropolitan area

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $82,587 (national: $37,585)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 312: Property Tax Refund for Homelessness-Related Expenses (2024) (2024) — passed, margin approved by voters statewide

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 314: Arizona Immigration Enforcement Measure — making illegal border crossings a state crime (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 63.3% Yes to 36.7% No statewide; supported by GOP legislature, opposed by Democratic Gov. Hobbs

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 139: Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 61.6% Yes to 38.4% No statewide

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.11)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 3364 (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 3344 (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.18)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Boeing (Mesa AH-64 Apache helicopter production) (4800 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Arizona State University (Tempe) (12000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Raytheon (Missiles and Defense) (12500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Intel Corporation (Chandler campus) (9400 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026 (ICE funding expansion)	nay	2026-03-04	mixed
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026	nay	2025-12-10	misaligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (budget reconciliation — Medicaid/SNAP cuts, tax refo	nay	2025-07-03	aligned
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 ($60B in military and eco	yea	2024-04-20	aligned
Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (standalone $17.6B militar	yea	2024-02-06	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Stanton stated at a November 2023 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that 'there can be no safe harbor for Hamas, and Congress must unequivocally"

Vote: on "Stanton voted Yea on H.R. 7217, the standalone Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act provi"

Stanton's November 2023 call for Congress to 'unequivocally support Israel' preceded his February 2024 vote for standalone Israel military aid (H.R. 7217) with only 46 Democrats (22%) while 166 voted nay. AIPAC is his #1 career donor ($139,304 in 202

same_source_inconsistency 30/100

Platform: "Stanton and 27 Democratic colleagues sent a letter to President Biden in March 2024 'supporting his Administration's efforts, along with Egypt and Qat"

Vote: on "Stanton stated at a November 2023 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that 'there can be no safe"

[auto-downgraded: both claims come from the same source host] In November 2023, Stanton called for unequivocal support for Israel's military campaign. By March 2024, he joined a letter supporting a 'pause in the fighting.' This marks a position evolu

Last silence detection: Never

Stanton did not join early Democratic calls for a ceasefire in Gaza (October-December 2023), instead framing his position around hostage release and Hamas destruction

144d silent

Expected position: As a Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee whose district includes significant Arab-American and Muslim communities in Tempe and Chandler, Stanton would be expected to add

Mesa in-person town hall postponed on August 27, 2025 — switched to telephone-only format

6d silent

Expected position: After announcing three town halls (Ahwatukee, Mesa, and a telephone town hall) in August 2025, constituents expected all three events to proceed as open in-person forums. Stanton ha

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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