[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Juan Vargas

Democratic · Representative, CA ·52

Score Components

30 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

100 → 25

Intelligence Volume 10%

54 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+33

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: unemployment rate: 7.6%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 35.9

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Non-English primary language at home: 59.7% of households

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: foreign-born population share: 31.3% (237,000 people)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 60.1%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 25.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 50.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 10.1% (LegisLetter) / 12.6% (Data USA 2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $86,750

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 36 — Homelessness, Drug Addiction and Theft Reduction Act (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 68.4% Yes — 31.6% No

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Proposition 1 — Behavioral Health Services and Bond Measure (2024) (2024) — passed, margin 50.2% Yes — 49.8% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 72 (share 0.11)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.13)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.15)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (San Ysidro Port of Entry) (2500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Southwestern Community College District (1500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: San Ysidro Health Center (2000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Sharp Healthcare (Chula Vista Medical Center) (3000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: California's 52nd Congressional District encompasses the South Bay region of San Diego County, including the cities of Chula Vista, National City, and Imperial Beach, stretching along the U.S.-Mexico border and west to Coronado. Home to approximately 757,541 constituents, the district is a majority-minority district

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No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Iran War Powers Resolution (March 5, 2026)	nay	2026-03-05	aligned
DHS Funding Bill — January 2026 Continuing Resolution	nay	2026-01-22	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — House passage	nay	2025-05-22	aligned
Laken Riley Act (119th Congress)	nay	2025-01-07	aligned
Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21)	nay	2024-05-22	mixed
National Security Supplemental (Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan — April 2024)	yea	2024-04-20	aligned
Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (Standalone GOP bill, February 2	yea	2024-02-06	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "At a February 2026 'ICE OUT OF SD' rally, Rep. Juan Vargas told activists who confronted him about his relationship with the pro-Israel lobbying group"

Vote: on "Federal Election Commission records show AIPAC contributed approximately $162,052 to Vargas's campai"

Vargas told constituents 'AIPAC has never given me a penny' at a rally where he was chanting 'ICE Out!' — yet FEC records document $162,052 in AIPAC contributions in the 2024 cycle alone, making the group his single largest donor. He did not respond

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Vargas joined the Congressional Progressive Caucus in September 2019, pledging to 'continue fighting for economic justice and security, protecting our"

Vote: on "Vargas was one of only four House Democrats to vote against the March 5, 2026 Iran war powers resolu"

Vargas pledged to promote 'global peace and security' as a Progressive Caucus member, yet was one of only four House Democrats to vote against Congress's war powers resolution to halt unauthorized military operations in Iran — joining 215 Republicans

reversal 60/100

Platform: "In January 2026, Vargas voted against DHS funding and declared: 'I won't vote to send taxpayer dollars to a rogue agency that terrorizes our communiti"

Vote: on "Vargas was one of only four NJ House Democrats (actually San Diego) to support a standalone $17.6 bi"

Vargas was one of only four Democrats to vote against the March 5 Iran war powers resolution, then reversed course on April 16 to support a nearly identical Democratic-led measure that failed by one vote. The reversal — from empowering Trump's war-ma

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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