[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

James R. Walkinshaw

Democratic · Representative, VA ·11

Score Components

19 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

36 → 9

Intelligence Volume 10%

54 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Car-dependent commuting: 55.1% drive alone; 4% use public transit; mean commute 28.5 min

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median rent: $2,367/month (national: $1,163) — extreme rent burden

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index (2026 rating): D+34 — Solid Seat; D shift +7 from prior cycle

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/ethnic composition: 50.3% White, 22.3% Asian, 14.8% Hispanic — majority-minority; significant Asian-American population

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Unemployment rate: 4% (national: 3.5%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 3.5% (national: 12.4%) — significantly below national average

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 70% (national: 65.5%); median home value $731,100

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 68.3% (national: 33.7%) — one of the most highly educated districts in the country; 34.2% hold post-graduate degrees

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024 estimate): 785,090 — majority-minority district

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $160,992 (national: $37,585) — among the wealthiest congressional districts nationally

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Fairfax County Bond Referenda (2024): $490M for schools, parks, transportation, and public safety (2024) — passed, margin Approved by wide margin

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Virginia Constitutional Amendment: Right to Abortion (2026 proposed) (2026) — pending, margin Legislature passed; on 2026 ballot

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 52-53 (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 54 (share 0.18)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 (share 0.25)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Northrop Grumman (Falls Church HQ area) (5000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: George Mason University (7000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Inova Health System (20000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Fairfax County Public Schools (25000 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
HEATS Act (energy permitting reform)	nay	2026-04-23	aligned
BOWOW Act (Bringing Order to Wildfire Operations and Weather)	nay	2026-03-19	aligned
Protecting Access for Hunters and Anglers Act — motion to recommit	aye	2026-03-18	aligned
Deporting Fraudsters Act	nay	2026-03-18	mixed
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026 — rule for consideratio	nay	2026-03-04	mixed
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 — rule for consideration	nay	2025-12-10	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

platform_vs_vote 60/100

Platform: "Walkinshaw launched his congressional campaign promising to 'put the brakes on the dangerous and reckless Trump administration' and described his cand"

Vote: on "Walkinshaw was a registered lobbyist for Walkinshaw Strategies in 2022, representing the Electronics"

Walkinshaw campaigned as an anti-Trump 'resistance' Democrat fighting for working families, yet he worked as a corporate lobbyist for the electronics manufacturing industry just three years before his congressional run. While the lobbying itself is n

position_evolution 30/100

Platform: "Walkinshaw told Jewish Insider that he is 'a strong believer in the importance and value of a secure, democratic Jewish state' and that the U.S.-Israe"

Vote: on "Walkinshaw defended Fairfax County's 'Trust Policy' sanctuary policy on national television, telling"

Walkinshaw's Israel stance occupies a nuanced middle ground: he opposes an arms embargo and calls Israel a 'key U.S. ally' with 'immense strategic importance,' yet simultaneously advocates for a two-state solution and believes the president should us

Last silence detection: Never

Walkinshaw has held no traditional open-format in-person town hall since taking office — relying on a Constituent Services Fair format with agency representatives rather than an unfiltered Q&A forum

233d silent

Expected position: As the newly elected representative of 785,090 constituents in a highly engaged, politically active district, Walkinshaw would be expected to hold regular open town halls where vote

Walkinshaw has not publicly addressed the ethical controversy surrounding his campaign's use of the late Rep. Connolly's social media accounts and email list to solicit donations after Connolly's death

96d silent

Expected position: After Connolly's X account posted a reminder to vote for Walkinshaw and Connolly's campaign sent emails soliciting contributions for Walkinshaw long after the congressman had died,

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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