[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Laurel M. Lee

Republican · Representative, FL ·15

Score Components

21 MODERATE

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

64 → 16

Intelligence Volume 10%

52 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+12

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: unemployment rate: 4.6%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: 27.5%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median home value: $326,300

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median age: 38.5

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: bachelor's degree or higher: 33.9%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: homeownership rate: 65.4%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: poverty rate: 9.7%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: median household income: $71,624

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: population: 813,472

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Florida Amendment 4 — Right to Abortion Initiative (2024) (2024) — failed, margin 57% Yes — 43% No (failed to meet 60% threshold)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 56 (share 0.11)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.13)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.15)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Amazon (fulfillment centers — Lakeland, Ruskin) (3500 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Lakeland Regional Health (5000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Publix Super Markets (Lakeland HQ) (12500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] District summary: Florida's 15th Congressional District encompasses the northeastern suburbs of Tampa, Florida, including parts of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk counties. Home to approximately 813,472 constituents, the district is a majority-minority suburban district where White (non-Hispanic) residents form the largest group at 54.4

secondary

Voted yea on H.Con.Res. 14 (FY2025 Budget Resolution (Reconciliation Framework)) on 2025-02-25: Lee voted yea on the budget resolution that set the framework for the OBBBA reconciliation, requiring $1.5 trillion in mandatory savings. The CWA and AFL-CIO both opposed the resolution, stating it 'threatens the financial security and well-being of millions of Am

primary · 2025-02-25

Voted yea on H.R. 29 (Laken Riley Act (119th Congress)) on 2025-01-07: Lee voted yea on mandatory ICE detention for undocumented immigrants accused of nonviolent crimes including shoplifting — the first bill signed into law in Trump's second term. The bill passed 264-159 with all 216 Republicans and 48 Democrats in support. Her district is 27.5% Hispanic wit

primary · 2025-01-07

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — House passage	yea	2025-07-03	misaligned
FY2025 Budget Resolution (Reconciliation Framework)	yea	2025-02-25	misaligned
Laken Riley Act (119th Congress)	yea	2025-01-07	deviating
Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	nay	2024-04-20	misaligned
Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024	yea	2024-04-20	aligned
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling)	yea	2023-05-31	deviating

Last contradiction analysis: Never

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Lee positions herself as a fiscal conservative who 'strongly agrees' that government should cut spending to reduce the national debt. Her OnTheIssues "

Vote: on "Lee voted yea on H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), in July 2025. The nonpartisan CBO p"

Lee campaigns as a fiscal conservative who demands deficit reduction, yet voted for the OBBBA — legislation the nonpartisan CBO projected would add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over ten years while cutting $1 trillion from Medicaid. The AFL-CIO

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Lee campaigned on a platform of election integrity and served as Florida's chief elections officer as Secretary of State under DeSantis. During her te"

Vote: on "Lee voted yea on the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act (debt ceiling deal). She joined 149 Republicans "

Lee ran Florida's 2020 election as Secretary of State — receiving gold stars for a smooth operation — then oversaw SB 90 restrictions that civil rights groups said suppressed votes. Her 2023 debt ceiling vote aligned her with the governing establishm

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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