[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

John J. McGuire

Republican · Representative, VA ·5

Score Components

5 LOW

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

0 → 0

Contradiction Risk 25%

0 → 0

Intelligence Volume 10%

46 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: 70.0%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: 34.3%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Medicaid enrollment: 15.7% of district population

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: 12.9%

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[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: $72,558 (2024)

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[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Question 1: Virginia Redistricting Commission Amendment (2020) — passed, margin 65.7% Yes – 34.3% No

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 54 (share 0.068)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 (share 0.082)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 (share 0.111)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 (share 0.131)

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[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 (share 0.151)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Framatome Inc. (2000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: BWX Technologies (7000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Centra Health (7800 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Liberty University (13000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] Top employer: University of Virginia (16000 employees)

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[constituency_baseline] District summary: Virginia's 5th Congressional District stretches from the northern suburbs of Richmond through rural Southside Virginia to the North Carolina border, covering more than two dozen counties and cities including Lynchburg, Danville, and Charlottesville. It is Virginia's largest district by area and is rated R+15 (stable

secondary

Voted yea_unverified on H.R. 22 (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act) on 2025-04-10: McGuire voted to require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration. VA-05 is 19.9% Black and 4.6% Hispanic; civil-rights groups argued the documentation requirements would disproportionately disenfranchise minority, elderly, and low-income voters. T

inferential · 2025-04-10

Voted yea on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Budget Reconciliation – Concurrence in Senate Amendment)) on 2025-07-03: McGuire voted with 218 Republicans on this near-party-line vote (218–214) to enact sweeping budget reconciliation that included deep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP alongside major tax cuts. VA-05 has a 12.9% poverty rate and 15.7% of constitue

primary · 2025-07-03

In the 2025–2026 cycle (through Dec 31, 2025), McGuire's campaign committee raised $872,444: $439,960 from individual contributions and $225,551 from other committee contributions (PACs).

primary · 2025-12-31

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Budget Reconciliation – Concurrence in Senate Amendm	yea	2025-07-03	mixed
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act	yea_unverified	2025-04-10	mixed

Last contradiction analysis: Never

No contradictions detected

Last silence detection: Never

No active silences

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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