[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Michael K. Simpson

Republican · Representative, ID ·2

Score Components

22 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

46 → 12

Intelligence Volume 10%

52 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: LDS (Latter-day Saint) population share: Approximately 25-30% (one of the highest concentrations outside Utah; concentrated in Idaho Falls, Rexburg, and Blackfoot areas)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median age: 34.8 (below national median; large LDS family demographic in eastern Idaho contributes to younger average)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership rate: Approximately 68% (above national average of 65.5%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+25

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's degree or higher: Approximately 28% (below Idaho average of 30% and national average of 33.7%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty rate: Approximately 12% (near national average; higher in rural agricultural and tribal communities)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Native American population share: Approximately 2% (Shoshone-Bannock Tribes, Shoshone-Paiute Tribes)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Hispanic population share: Approximately 13% (concentrated in agricultural processing communities in Twin Falls, Jerome, and Gooding counties)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: White non-Hispanic population share: Approximately 77%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median household income: Approximately $60,800 (below Idaho median of $67,000 and national median of $74,580; rural counties significantly lower)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Idaho Medicaid Expansion — Proposition 2 (2018) (2018) — passed, margin Statewide: 61% Yes — 39% No (including strong support in rural agricultural counties)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Idaho Proposition 1 — Ranked Choice Voting and Open Primaries (2024) (2024) — failed, margin Statewide: 30% Yes — 70% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 31-33 Manufacturing (food processing — potato, dairy) (share 0.09)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 61 Educational Services (share 0.08)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 Public Administration (federal — INL and land management) (share 0.11)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.15)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 Agriculture Forestry Fishing and Hunting (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Lamb Weston (potato processing — multiple facilities) (3000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: College of Southern Idaho (Twin Falls) / Magic Valley Regional Medical Center (2200 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Idaho State University (Pocatello) (3200 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (119th Congress)	yea_unverified	2025-07-03	misaligned
Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (TikTok)	yea_unverified	2024-03-13	mixed
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (Debt Ceiling)	yea_unverified	2023-05-31	deviating
Consolidated Appropriations Act 2023	yea_unverified	2022-12-23	deviating
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022	nay_unverified	2022-08-12	misaligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

platform_vs_vote 90/100

Platform: "Simpson has consistently described himself as a fiscal conservative committed to reducing government spending and the national debt, positioning himse"

Vote: on "Simpson voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which the CBO projected would add $3."

Simpson's 26-year stated identity as a fiscal conservative and responsible appropriator is directly contradicted by his yes vote on the OBBBA, which CBO projected would add $3.4 trillion to the deficit — the largest deficit-increasing legislation he

Last silence detection: Never

Spent nuclear fuel storage at Idaho National Laboratory and the 1995 Settlement Agreement's deadlines

2191d silent

Expected position: Simpson represents the district containing Idaho National Laboratory and has served on the Appropriations subcommittee overseeing DOE. The 1995 Idaho Settlement Agreement — negotiat

Columbia Snake River System dam removal and its intersection with ID-02 agriculture and salmon recovery

1095d silent

Expected position: The debate over potential removal of the four Lower Snake River dams in Washington State — which are used to transport Idaho agricultural products to Pacific export markets via barg

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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