[CAPTURE PORTAL] 119TH CONGRESS

// Legislative Integrity Monitor

Goblin House Intelligence

Troy Downing

Republican · Representative, MT ·2

Score Components

26 ELEVATED

Connection Density 20%

0 → 0

Donor Influence 10%

0 → 0

Silence Risk 25%

20 → 5

Contradiction Risk 25%

64 → 16

Intelligence Volume 10%

52 → 5

Constituency Deviation 5%

0 → 0

Voting Misalignment 5%

0 → 0

% = weight in composite score · Raw component 0–100 × weight = weighted contribution (→) · Sum of contributions = overall score. Hover a row for details.

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 31.5% (national: 33.7%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+16 (2024); Trump won by 27 points in 2020

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Racial/Ethnic Composition: 83.5% White, 5.1% Native American, 3.9% Hispanic, remainder Asian/Black/other

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Homeownership Rate: 70.6% (national: 65.5%); median home value $311,300

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Poverty Rate: 7.3% (national: 12.4%)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Age: 40.6 (national: 38.5); largest cohort 60-69 at 13.8%

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Population (2024 ACS): 552,014

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Demographic anchor: Median Household Income: $71,501 (national: $78,538; well above $37,585 national median per ACS)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Montana CI-126 — Top-Four Primary System (2024) — failed, margin 48% Yes to 52% No

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Ballot measure: Montana CI-128 — Right to Abortion Constitutional Initiative (2024) — passed, margin 57% Yes to 43% No (enshrined abortion rights in Montana Constitution)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 92 - Public Administration (share 0.07)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 44-45 - Retail Trade (share 0.12)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 21 - Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (share 0.08)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance (share 0.14)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Dominant industry: NAICS 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (share 0.15)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Montana State University-Billings (1200 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Town Pump Inc (4500 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: State of Montana (Helena) (12000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Benefis Health System (Great Falls) (3000 employees)

secondary

[constituency_baseline] Top employer: Billings Clinic (7500 employees)

secondary

No connections mapped

Bill	Vote	Date	Alignment
Retirement Investment Choice Act (Crypto in 401(k) Plans)	yea_unverified	2025-10-14	aligned
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (FY2025 Budget Reconciliation)	yea	2025-07-03	mixed
Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act	yea_unverified	2025-04-10	mixed
Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act (ICC Sanctions)	yea	2025-01-09	deviating
Laken Riley Act	yea	2025-01-07	aligned

Last contradiction analysis: Never

statement_vs_disclosure 90/100

Platform: "Downing's campaign biography and press kit describe him as 'a proud Montanan' who 'moved to Montana in the late 1990s and lives in Helena.' He ran for"

Vote: on "Downing pled guilty in July 2018 to two misdemeanors: obtaining resident hunting licenses as a non-r"

Downing has built his entire political identity around being a 'proud Montanan' and won statewide office as Montana State Auditor, yet he pled guilty to illegally obtaining resident hunting licenses for six years as a non-resident, with evidence show

statement_vs_disclosure 60/100

Platform: "Downing campaigned for Montana State Auditor in 2020 saying he would 'protect the consumer' and that his 'prime directive is protecting the consumer.'"

Vote: on "The Montana Commissioner of Political Practices found Downing committed seven campaign practice viol"

Downing campaigned on 'protecting the consumer' as his 'prime directive,' yet his own campaign was found to have committed seven violations of Montana campaign finance and transparency laws — the very type of regulatory compliance he was pledging to

Last silence detection: Never

California residency vs. Montana political identity

3134d silent

Expected position: As a candidate who built his political career on being a 'proud Montanan' and held the office of Montana State Auditor — a position requiring Montana residency — Downing would be ex

In-person constituent town halls (2025)

250d silent

Expected position: As the freshman representative for Montana's 2nd District, Downing would be expected to hold in-person public town halls to engage constituents on major legislation including the FY

No donor interests mapped

No constituency baseline modelled

No platform commitments archived

No committee memberships recorded

Scoring Methodology

The Capture Risk Score is a composite 0–100 index measuring potential regulatory capture of elected officials. It is computed from seven weighted components:

Component	Weight	Signal
Silence Risk	25%	Topics where donors have interests but the official is silent
Contradiction Risk	25%	Stated positions contradicted by voting record (recent findings boosted)
Connection Density	20%	Mapped relationships to lobbyists, contractors, interest groups
Intelligence Volume	10%	Documented facts from verified sources (logarithmic scale)
Donor Influence	10%	Distinct donors with interests overlapping committee jurisdiction
Constituency Deviation	5%	Gap between district priorities and legislative focus
Voting Misalignment	5%	Floor votes contradicting stated platform positions

Each component produces a raw score 0–100. The weighted sum yields the overall score. Tier thresholds: Critical ≥ 45, High ≥ 36, Elevated ≥ 22, Moderate ≥ 10, Low < 10.

Officials without at least 2 documented facts, 1 contradiction analysis, 1 voting record, or 1 constituency baseline are marked Insufficient Evidence and excluded from numeric ranking.

Contradiction findings from the last 180 days receive a recency boost. High-severity contradictions (score ≥ 70) receive additional weight.

Full methodology: /congress/methodology

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