SUBJECT-7991.dossier
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company
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status: active
Stated vs Revealed
No documented contradictions on file.
Key Connections
competitor
Kalshi is Polymarket's primary competitor in the prediction market space. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. also serves as a PAID advisor to Kalshi, creating a unique conflict where he advises both the largest prediction markets simultaneously. Polymarket has lobbied alongside Kalshi against state-level gaming regulations.
Facts (4)
Data Freshness
Fresh
Last update: 30d ago · Avg age: 435d
Confidence Tiers:
Primary Source — cross-referenced government/corporate filings
Pending Review — sourced but not independently verified
AI Inference — analytical hypothesis from cross-referencing
✓ Verified Findings (4)
Independently re-checked: a second model read the source artifact and confirmed it supports the extracted claim.
✓ verified
Partially Corroborated
Kalshi reported opening 200 investigations into insider trading in prediction markets in past year, resulting in account freezes and fines
✓ verified
Primary Source
Kalshi opened 200 investigations into insider trading in past year, resulting in account freezes, trader bans, and fines
✓ verified
Primary Source
Kalshi achieved $11 billion valuation while Polymarket reached $9 billion valuation as of 2026
✓ verified
Primary Source
Prediction markets handled more than $40 billion in bets in 2025, quadrupling market size to $63.5 billion valuation
All Connections (5)
competitor
primary
Kalshi is Polymarket's primary competitor in the prediction market space. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. also serves as a PAID advisor to Kalshi, creating a unique conflict where he advises both the largest prediction markets simultaneously. Polymarket has lobbied alongside Kalshi against state-level gaming regulations.
oversight
likely
CFTC-registered prediction market platform subject to potential SEC jurisdiction for securities-based contracts
regulated prediction market platform
inferential
since 2026
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. An advisory release numbered 9185-26 could relate to Kalshi's operations or market rules as a registered entity under CFTC oversight.
oversight
inferential
since 2026
Project Crypto summit mentioned in context of SEC and CFTC joint announcement regarding prediction markets; Kalshi is a known prediction market platform regulated by CFTC.
oversight
inferential
since 2026
CFTC (led by Mike Selig) filed lawsuits against prediction markets; Kalshi is a known prediction market platform that would be subject to such CFTC jurisdiction actions.
Sources (29)
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Kalshi — USASpending contracts (no results)
contract
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026-05-10
UNVERIFIED SEARCH_ERROR: Kalshi not found in opencorporates
claim_flag
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Kalshi — Court records (no results)
court_document
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Kalshi — Corporate registrations (no results)
government_disclosure
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Kalshi — Parliamentary records (no results)
parliamentary_record
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Kalshi — Lobbying disclosures (no results)
government_disclosure
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Kalshi — SEC filings (no results)
sec_filing
Processed
📜 Receipt
