SUBJECT-7992.dossier
·
company
·
status: active
Stated vs Revealed
No documented contradictions on file.
Key Connections
Investigation Target
FBI raided Coplan's NYC SoHo home on November 13, 2024 at 6am, seizing phone and electronic devices as part of DOJ investigation into whether Polymarket allowed US-based users to bet on the platform
advisor
Joined Polymarket's advisory board in August 2025 concurrent with 1789 Capital's multi-million dollar strategic investment in the prediction market platform.
investor
Peter Thiel's venture capital firm Founders Fund led the $45M Series B round in May 2024 (at ~$1B valuation) and led a $200M+ investment in June 2025 (at $1B valuation). Founders Fund is a prominent investor in Polymarket across multiple funding rounds.
competitor
Kalshi is Polymarket's primary competitor in the prediction market space. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. also serves as a PAID advisor to Kalshi, creating a unique conflict where he advises both the largest prediction markets simultaneously. Polymarket has lobbied alongside Kalshi against state-level gaming regulations.
oversight
The Department of Justice investigated Polymarket for allegedly allowing US users to bet on the platform. Investigation included FBI raid of CEO Shayne Coplan in November 2024. Investigation ended without charges in July 2025.
Facts (16)
Data Freshness
Fresh
Last update: 30d ago · Avg age: 254d
Confidence Tiers:
Primary Source — cross-referenced government/corporate filings
Pending Review — sourced but not independently verified
AI Inference — analytical hypothesis from cross-referencing
✓ Verified Findings (16)
Independently re-checked: a second model read the source artifact and confirmed it supports the extracted claim.
✓ verified
Partially Corroborated
Sacra estimates Polymarket generated $0 revenue in 2025 as the platform operated without trading fees while scaling volume globally
✓ verified
Partially Corroborated
Massachusetts issued preliminary injunction finding Polymarket prediction contracts functioned as illegal sports wagering
✓ verified
Primary Source
Nevada Gaming Control Board filed civil complaint in January 2026 seeking to prevent Polymarket from offering event contracts without state gaming license
✓ verified
Primary Source
Polymarket has been banned in multiple jurisdictions including France, Switzerland, Poland, Singapore, Belgium, Bulgaria, Portugal, Brazil, Australia, Italy, Romania
✓ verified
Partially Corroborated
Coplan posted on X that the Trump campaign HQ 'literally found out they were winning from Polymarket' during election night
✓ verified
Primary Source
During the 2024 US election, Polymarket pegged Trump's chances at 58% as polls closed and surged to 95% by 11:43pm ET, approximately 6 hours before AP called the race
✓ verified
Pending Review
Polymarket generated over $25 billion in monthly trading volume in March 2026, up from roughly $1.2 billion in 2025
Date: 2026-03-15
Added: 02 May 2026
✓ verified
Partially Corroborated
Total disclosed funding exceeds $2 billion across multiple rounds including seed (2020), Series B ($45M at $1B valuation in May 2024 led by Founders Fund), and ICE Series D ($1B primary, up to $1B secondary)
✓ verified
Primary Source
Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, for $112 million in July 2025 to enable US market re-entry
✓ verified
Primary Source
Polymarket valuation reached $9 billion as of February 2026 following ICE investment
✓ verified
Primary Source
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of NYSE, invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket in October 2025
✓ verified
Primary Source
CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million and issued cease and desist order in January 2022 for failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility
✓ verified
Primary Source
DOJ and CFTC formally ended investigations into Polymarket in July 2025 without bringing new charges
✓ verified
Primary Source
FBI raided Coplan's NYC SoHo home on November 13, 2024 at 6am, seizing phone and electronic devices as part of DOJ investigation into whether Polymarket allowed US-based users to bet on the platform
✓ verified
Primary Source
Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan was born in 1998, making him 26-27 years old in 2024-2025
✓ verified
Partially Corroborated
Polymarket filed filing with the SEC on 2026-03-02. Accession number: N/A.
All Connections (10)
advisor, advisory role
primary
Joined Polymarket's advisory board in August 2025 concurrent with 1789 Capital's multi-million dollar strategic investment in the prediction market platform. · Advisor to Polymarket through 1789 Capital firm
Investigation Target
primary
since 2024
FBI raided Coplan's NYC SoHo home on November 13, 2024 at 6am, seizing phone and electronic devices as part of DOJ investigation into whether Polymarket allowed US-based users to bet on the platform
oversight
likely
Prediction market platform under federal investigation for potential securities violations
investor
secondary
1789 Capital invested in Polymarket, the prediction market platform that settled CFTC charges in 2022. Polymarket gained significant political attention during the 2024 election cycle.
investor
primary
Peter Thiel's venture capital firm Founders Fund led the $45M Series B round in May 2024 (at ~$1B valuation) and led a $200M+ investment in June 2025 (at $1B valuation). Founders Fund is a prominent investor in Polymarket across multiple funding rounds.
competitor
primary
Kalshi is Polymarket's primary competitor in the prediction market space. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. also serves as a PAID advisor to Kalshi, creating a unique conflict where he advises both the largest prediction markets simultaneously. Polymarket has lobbied alongside Kalshi against state-level gaming regulations.
regulated prediction market platform
inferential
since 2026
Polymarket is a major prediction market platform. The advisory release may address or clarify rules applicable to Polymarket's operations within prediction markets regulatory framework.
oversight
inferential
since 2026
Project Crypto summit mentioned in context of SEC and CFTC joint announcement regarding prediction markets; Polymarket is a known prediction market platform.
oversight
inferential
since 2026
CFTC (led by Mike Selig) filed lawsuits asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets; Polymarket is another major prediction market platform potentially affected.
oversight
primary
The Department of Justice investigated Polymarket for allegedly allowing US users to bet on the platform. Investigation included FBI raid of CEO Shayne Coplan in November 2024. Investigation ended without charges in July 2025.
Sources (34)
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Polymarket — Parliamentary records (no results)
parliamentary_record
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Polymarket — USASpending contracts (no results)
contract
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Polymarket — Court records (no results)
court_document
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Polymarket — Corporate registrations (no results)
government_disclosure
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026
UNVERIFIED Research: Polymarket — Lobbying disclosures (no results)
government_disclosure
Processed
📜 Receipt
2026-04-23
UNVERIFIED SEARCH_ERROR: Polymarket not found in opencorporates
claim_flag
Processed
📜 Receipt
